This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



For the Record on FL/MI

My personal opinion is that seating Michigan or Florida *at all* is just stupid and wrong. You just don’t change the rules in the middle of the game. That is wrong and disturbing. EVEN if it is constructed in a way that it won’t make any difference.

But if they ARE going to do something, then just seating both delegations, but at half a vote per delegate rather than a full vote, seems like a reasonable compromise. It looks like that will happen with Florida. As I write this, Michigan is still up in the air. But some of the proposals to just spit it 50/50, or 69/59, or whatever… are all bullshit. If they are going to recognize the state at all, then it should be based on the election that happened, no matter how flawed. And the uncommitted delegates should be seated as uncommitted delegates (who can then make up their mind and pick someone before the convention).

It seems that is unlikely to happen too. There is even some talk about them “punting” the Michigan question to the credentials committee, which won’t meet for quite some time.

Hopefully we will know before too much longer.

Delegates While Waiting for RBC

A few more superdelegates today. 3 for Obama, 1 for Clinton.

Updated stats:

Delegate count is: Obama 1984, Clinton 1783, Edwards 7

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.6%, Clinton 47.2%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 276 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 42 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 243 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 15.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)

Clinton needs 88.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)

Of course, as I type these words, the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the DNC is meeting to decide what to do with Florida and Michigan. Based on conversation so far, it seems clear that these states will be seated in some way or another, and the finish line will be moved back some. The question is just how much.

My charts, graphs and numbers will reflect any changes made by the RBC as soon as CNN’s Summary Page reflects the changes, which hopefully will be almost immediate after the RBC makes their decisions.