This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon




Lost Parrot Tells Veterinarian His Address
(AP on Huffington Post)

When Yosuke the parrot flew out of his cage and got lost, he did exactly what he had been taught _ recite his name and address to a stranger willing to help.

Police rescued the African grey parrot two weeks ago from a neighbor’s roof in the city of Nagareyama, near Tokyo. After spending a night at the station, he was transferred to a nearby veterinary hospital while police searched for clues, local policeman Shinjiro Uemura said.

He kept mum with the cops, but began chatting after a few days with the vet.

“I’m Mr. Yosuke Nakamura,” the bird told the veterinarian, according to Uemura. The parrot also provided his full home address, down to the street number, and even entertained the hospital staff by singing songs.

She couldn’t talk, but I still miss Zuri very much. :-(

Electoral College: McCain weakens in Indiana

An update in Indiana continues a positive streak for Obama. The state moves from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain” putting McCain’s lead at less than 5%, and putting it in play for Obama.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 320, McCain 218

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 281, Obama 257

Second Round of KY, OR Updates

We now have 99 of 103 delegates for KY/OR. At this point 56 for Clinton, 43 for Obama. That is 56.6% for Clinton. I had predicted 56.3%. But she needed 74.4% to be on pace for a win, and she didn’t come close.

Of the delegates above, today’s update included 8 for Obama and 5 for Clinton. In addition, Clinton picked up 2 superdelegates and Obama picked up 1 superdelegate. Today’s net is therefore 9 for Obama and 7 for Clinton.

New stats:

Delegate count is: Obama 1962, Clinton 1777, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 302 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 64 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 249 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 21.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)

Clinton needs 82.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)

Based on the limited polls available so far from Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, Obama will probably pick up about 38 delegates from those states. Which means he only needs to pick up about 26 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination under the existing rules. (Meaning no Florida and no Michigan.)

Now, the situation of Florida and Michigan may well change on the 31st when the rules committee meets. And Clinton yesterday mentioned the possibility of appealing to the credentials committee and taking this all the way to the convention if she does not get the result she wants.

If Clinton gets her best case result (full seating of Michigan and Florida based on the existing elections) we would have:

Delegate Count: Obama 2041, Clinton 1970, Edwards 20

Delegates that would be needed to win: 2209

There would be 387 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama would need 168 more delegates to win.

Clinton would need 239 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that would mean:

Obama would need 43.4% of the remaining delegates to win.

Clinton would need 61.8% of the remaining delegates to win.

Again, that is with Clinton’s best case result… which is highly unlikely. But even with that best case, she would need to be convincing a significantly larger fraction of superdelegates than she has been lately.

Oops, almost forgot. McCain picks up 40 delegates and Paul picks up 4. New Republican totals: McCain 1500, Huckabee 275, Romney 255, Paul 30.