This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Remaining States Update

I thought it might be time to update the delegate estimates from the rest of the primaries. I last did this estimate on May 3rd.

By the way, those predictions from the last time were exactly right for Guam (2 to 2 split). For Indiana and North Carolina I had predicted 97 Obama, 90 Clinton. The actual results were 99 Obama, 88 Clinton. Pretty close.

Running the rest of the states based on the averages as of a few minutes ago, you get the following:

  • West Virginia: 20 Clinton, 8 Obama
  • Kentucky: 35 Clinton, 16 Obama
  • Oregon: 29 Clinton, 23 Obama
  • Puerto Rico: 32 Clinton, 23 Obama
  • Montana: 10 Clinton, 6 Obama
  • South Dakota: 6 Clinton, 9 Obama

First of all, yes Ivan, this still shows Clinton ahead in Oregon, even though all the recent polls have showed Obama ahead. This is because there still haven’t been enough polls with Obama ahead to flip the overall trend percentage… yet. It is fairly obvious that it will happen, it just hasn’t yet. And I am going with pure, unadulterated averages, so those are the numbers I am using right now.

Anyway, of those six primaries, Clinton is at the margin she needs to “be on track” in only one… the next one… West Virginia. She is close in Kentucky though, so if she gets a media bump out of West Virginia for her absolutely crushing margins, she might be able to be “on pace” in Kentucky as well.

Assuming of course that more superdelegate announcements in the three days between now and the West Virginia primaries don’t make her ratio needed to win even higher… which will probably happen, potentially putting even West Virginia out of reach. There are now more superdelegates left than delegates to be determined by primaries, so they actually matter more now.

The total of all six remaining given these estimates would be Clinton 132, Obama 85. That has Clinton getting 60.8% of the delegates, well below the 69.6% ratio she currently needs to win.

If that happened, we would have the following:

Delegate count would be: Obama 1945, Clinton 1828, Edwards 19

In percent terms that would be: Obama 51.3%, Clinton 48.2%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There would be 256 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama would need 80 more delegates to win.

Clinton would need 197 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama would need 31.3% of the remaining delegates to win.

Clinton would need 77.0% of the remaining delegates to win.

It must suck for her to go out on a string of wins, but still lose. Oh well.

Final Round of IN, NC Updates

The delegate counts for North Carolina and Indiana are now complete.

99 delegates for Obama, 88 for Clinton.

(Of those, 9 delegates were new today, 5 for Clinton, 4 for Obama.)

That’s 47.1% for Clinton. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 52.9% for Obama. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

Clinton obviously was far far below the pace she needed to actually try to win this thing.

In addition today 16 more superdelegates declared preferences. 10 for Obama, 6 for Clinton. Once again Clinton loses the percentage game. As of yesterday she needed to be getting 68.3% of delegates to catch up and win. Of today’s superdelegates she got 37.5%. Even if you add the delegates she got today from IN/NC, she only manages 44%. Oops. But yet she stays in.

Anyway, updated summary:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1860, Clinton 1696, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 473 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 165 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 329 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 34.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)

Clinton needs 69.6% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)

More and more superdelegates are declaring their preferences. There hasn’t been a massive overwhelming wave of them yet, but it seems the numbers are increasing. This will be over soon.

It seems everybody is determined, for whatever reason, that eventually the Florida and Michigan delegations will be seated in one form or another. I really think they shouldn’t be seated at all, but whatever. When they finally agree how to seat those delegates, all the numbers above will of course change. But the bottom line is that any way they end up seating the delegations will be in a way that is structured such that it doesn’t change the results. It will just be a way to make those states feel included. But they will not matter.