This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Electoral College: Michigan Flips to McCain

A new poll moves my “last five polls average” for Michigan from Leaning Obama to Leaning McCain.

At the moment there are 123 electoral votes worth of states in the “leaning” category, meaning that in reality they could easily go either way. However, of those, at the moment 91 electoral votes worth are leaning toward McCain, and only 32 are leaning toward Obama. Once Obama can truly be done with this primary season, he has some work to do if he is going to be in a strong position in November.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 299, Obama 239

Clinton Needs More Than 70% Now

The superdelegates just keep coming. Some new ones, plus at least one switcher this time. The net for today, 4 for Obama, 1 for Clinton. If the rush of superdelegates is going to come to Clinton’s rescue, they really need to start soon.

Updated stats:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1864, Clinton 1697, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.1%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 468 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 161 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 328 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 34.4% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)

Clinton needs 70.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)

As noted in the title of this post this means that as of today Clinton passes the 70% mark.