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Regular Stump

She just gave essentially her regular stump speech in West Virginia. No surprise dropping out. No comments about anything changing based on yesterday’s results.

Oh well.

OK, time to go to work now.

This Will be Good

One of Andrew Sullivan’s readers points out that Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention will occur on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr’s “I Have a Dream” speech. In my head I already see some of the outlines of this speech forming in my head. Obama will bring the house down.

First Round of IN, NC Updates

The results so far from North Carolina and Indiana:

170 delegates out of 187 (90.9%) determined.

91 delegates for Obama, 79 for Clinton.

That’s 46.5% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 53.5% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

Rolling that up with the numbers from before those states, current status…

The new delegate count is: Obama 1836, Clinton 1681, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.9%, Clinton 47.5%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 512 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 189 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 344 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 36.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)

Clinton needs 67.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)

And that is that. It can’t be emphasized enough just how over this is at this point. If she does indeed continue to fight this out, she will win a few of the next states. But this picture won’t change all that much. That percentage she needs is really really high. As it has been for awhile, Obama pretty much has to say “you know, never mind, you’re right, you should win, I’m dropping out” for her to start to get those sort of percentages.

And the makeup of the rules and credentials committees are such that it will be nearly impossible for her to get any substantive changes done that would affect the outcome. Changes, maybe. Changes that affect the outcome… no.

We are now firmly in Huckabee “I didn’t major in math, I majored in miracles” territory.

[Edit 2008 May 8 13:57 UTC: Corrected Edwards’ percentage from 0.6% to 0.5%.]

She Signals That She Goes On

When people started saying her clearing her schedule was a sign she might drop out, she quickly scheduled an event in West Virginia for today. And now on her strategist conference call they are talking about fighting to get Florida and Michigan seated through the rules and credentials committees. And they are repeating how Obama has not yet proved himself, etc.

So we get to keep going for awhile longer.

Even though this has been wrapped up essentially since the beginning of March at the latest if you really look at it. And now the media is finally admitting it too. The pressure on her to stop is going to be enormous.

But for the moment at least, it looks like we keep going.

Unless she makes a surprise announcement at that West Virginia event that she hasn’t yet told her own staff about.

Delegate Counts at 8:00 UTC

No changes since an hour ago, but once again, for completeness…

So far from CNN for tonight:

170 delegates out of 187 (90.9%) determined.

91 delegates for Obama, 79 for Clinton.

That’s 46.5% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 53.5% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

And with no changes this hour, plus it being 8 hours in, I’m calling it a night. I’ll do the regular delegate update after a few hours of sleep. Bottom line, Clinton didn’t come even close to doing what she needed to do tonight in order to make her road to the nomination easier rather than harder.

Delegate Counts at 7:00 UTC

So far from CNN for tonight:

170 delegates out of 187 (90.9%) determined.

91 delegates for Obama, 79 for Clinton.

That’s 46.5% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 53.5% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

Delegate Counts at 6:00 UTC

So far from CNN for tonight:

152 delegates out of 187 (81.3%) determined.

78 delegates for Obama, 74 for Clinton.

That’s 48.7% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 51.3% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

And still counting… Not sure how much longer I’ll do the hourly updates before I just get ready to do the regular delegate update. I’m getting sleepy. But I want to go until CNN stops updating the numbers for the night at least. :-)

Delegate Counts at 5:00 UTC

So far from CNN for tonight:

140 delegates out of 187 (74.9%) determined.

73 delegates for Obama, 67 for Clinton.

That’s 47.9% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needs.)

That’s 52.1% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needs.)

If you include the delegates above, the overall number for the percentage of ALL remaining delegates (not just tonight) Hillary needs to win is now above 65%. From a delegate point of view, keeping in mind how few delegates are left and where things stand, these results are absolutely devastating for Clinton.

This, plus the psychological effect of Indiana being right on the edge instead of being a clear Hillary win… although it now looks like she will eke out the win… the media is FINALLY declaring this whole thing over. Russert, Drudge, others…

Now Hillary just has to admit it.

The canceling of appearances is an indication that she is at the very least seriously rethinking what to do next. There is probably a decent chance she will officially give up within the next 24 hours.

Or… she may decide to fight all the way to the convention like she has promised.

The next 24 hours will be interesting.

Canceling Appearances

Ooo…

As Lake County results trickle in and Clinton’s margin in Indiana keeps shrinking, this news:

Russert: Clinton cancels morning show appearances
(Ben Smith, Politico)

Tim Russert, a colleague reports, just said that Hillary Clinton canceled her scheduled appearances on the morning shows tomorrow.

(via Slog)

This is potentially big. Maybe. Or not. :-)

Somebody is doing a gut check on what to do next.

Delegate Counts at 4:00 UTC

So far from CNN for tonight:

109 delegates out of 187 (58.3%) determined.

58 delegates for Obama, 51 for Clinton.

That’s 46.8% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needs.)

That’s 53.2% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needs.)