This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

Categories

Calendar

Electoral College: New Hampshire Goes Blue

Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate.  Both show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

One state changes status today.  This time it is a move toward Obama:

The five poll average goes from an Obama lead of 4.1%, which we consider close enough to call the state a swing state, to a 7.1% lead, which we consider large enough to call New Hampshire a “Weak Obama” state.  So it gets colored blue for now.

Since New Hampshire is no longer in our swing category, we take the possibility of winning it out of Romney’s Best case.  This leaves us with:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 272 266
Current Status 220 318
Obama Best Case 170 368

Romney’s new best case has him with just 3 more electoral votes than a 269-269 tie.  This leaves his path to victory very narrow indeed.  Assuming he retains all of the states he is ahead by more than 5% in, he would then have to still win ALL of the swing states that are currently too close to call.  Florida (27), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), and Iowa (6) all become must win states.  Lose any one of those, and the election is lost.

Of course, there is still plenty of time to pull more states that are currently “Weak Obama” states back into the swing state category.  Pull Pennsylvania (20), Minnesota (10) or Wisconsin (10) back from Obama and make them competitive, and all of a sudden there would be a lot more ways to win.  Colorado (9), Oregon (7), Nevada (6) or New Hampshire (4) would help too, just not as much.  I suppose a play might even be made at Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1).  At the moment though, Obama has healthy leads in those states (and the CD).

Edit 2012 May 20 06:35 UTC – Fixed Map, SC was incorrectly colored as a swing state, it is now correctly colored as “Weak Romney”.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Oregon

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Today we have results from Oregon.  Prior to today we had one superdelegate in Oregon for Romney and 27 TBD.  We now have Romney 19, Paul 3, Santorum 2, Gingrich 2, TBD 2.  So for the day Romney +18, Paul +3, Santorum +2, Gingrich +2.

Romney got 72.0% of today’s delegates, way more than the 23.0% he needed in order to be on track to clinch the nomination.  So the march goes on.

Overall totals at this point:  Romney 975, Santorum 260, Gingrich 145, Paul 117, TBD 789

I should also mention that a couple days ago Paul announced he would not be campaigning in the remaining primary states.  Contrary to some of the headlines, he did not suspend his campaign like Santorum and Gingrich have.  His campaign is still actively working the delegate process in the states where that is possible.  He just isn’t dedicating any resources to trying to win votes in the remaining states where he has no chance of winning.  Any efforts are concentrated on the actual process of delegate selection, which has basically been his strategy all along.  Effectively though, by the nature of the memo the campaign put out, regardless of what was intended, the effect is that what little attention was still being given to him now fades away too.  Especially since he also essentially promised to “behave” at the convention and not cause trouble.

So we now just wait for Romney to finish collecting the last 169 delegates he needs to win.  Next up, Kentucky and Arkansas on the 22nd.