This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



@abulsme Updates from 2012-05-17 (UTC)

  • Just completed a 2.85 km walk – Afternoon walk. #RunKeeper #
  • RT @daveweigel: PPP: Gary Johnson polling at 7% in New Hampshire. (Nader got 4% there in 2000) #
  • MT @natsecHeather: NY Dist Judge issues injunction against 2012 #NDAA detainee prov: "lacks the min reqs… to pass constitutional muster" #
  • @BYUfan I have been thinking about this and meaning to email you to discuss. I will send you something later today when I have a few min. #

Electoral College: Wisconsin Swings!

Chart and map from the 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate. Both show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

One state changes status today, and it is a move in Romney’s direction:

It seems like it was just yesterday when I was saying that if Romney pulled Wisconsin back toward being competitive it would open up more paths for victory to him. And boom, today Obama’s lead in the five poll average in Wisconsin drops from 7.2% down to 4.0%.

Looking at the history here, this is a veritable collapse for Obama in Wisconsin. Up through mid-April I’d classified Wisconsin as “Strong Obama” because his leads there were over 10%. There was even one poll showing him up by 17%! On April 19th the lead dropped to below 10% and I reclassified Wisconsin as “Weak Obama”. But the trend in May has been decidedly and dramatically toward Romney. The two most recent polls show a tie and a 1% Obama lead. There haven’t yet been any Wisconsin polls showing Romney actually ahead, but the margin is now clearly small enough that Wisconsin could easily go either way.

So we add Wisconsin into Romney’s best case scenario:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 282 256
Current Status 220 318
Obama Best Case 170 368

This makes Romney’s path to victory much more flexible. Florida (29), Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15) are still “must win”. If any one of those went to Obama, Romney would be done. If he lost Virginia (13) we’d have a 269-269 tie, which would probably result in a messy Romney victory in the House of Representatives. But with the new set of swing states, he could afford to lose any one of Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), Wisconsin (10), or Iowa (6) and still win.

This move in Wisconsin is by far the most dramatic move we’ve seen toward Romney yet in the state polls. As more polls come in for other states, the question will be if this move in Wisconsin is the first sign of more general moves toward Romney in many states, or if there is something Wisconsin specific going on here… perhaps spillover from the Walker recall battle or some such.

A state moving all the way from “Strong” support of a candidate to being a swing state in less than a month though is a pretty dramatic move. If Romney can produce that kind of motion in a few more states, this analysis will very quickly start showing a much more competitive race!

Edit 2012 May 20 06:38 UTC – Fixed Map, SC was incorrectly colored as a swing state, it is now correctly colored as “Weak Romney”.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Oregon Update

Charts from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Today we have some updates to yesterday’s Oregon results.

First of all, it turns out Santorum gets one more delegate than it looked like yesterday, and Gingrich gets one less.

Second, the remaining two Oregon superdelegates stated they will echo the primary results and support Romney.

New summary for Oregon: Romney 21, Santorum 3, Paul 3, Gingrich 1

So net for the day: Romney +2, Santorum +1, Gingrich -1

So Romney’s % of remaining needed to win drops from 21.4% to 21.2%.

He needs 167 more delegates to get to the 1144 magic number by my estimate.

(My estimate uses the Green Papers Soft Count plus the DCW Superdelegate Count).