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First Round of IN, NC Updates

The results so far from North Carolina and Indiana:

170 delegates out of 187 (90.9%) determined.

91 delegates for Obama, 79 for Clinton.

That’s 46.5% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 53.5% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

Rolling that up with the numbers from before those states, current status…

The new delegate count is: Obama 1836, Clinton 1681, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.9%, Clinton 47.5%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 512 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 189 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 344 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 36.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)

Clinton needs 67.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)

And that is that. It can’t be emphasized enough just how over this is at this point. If she does indeed continue to fight this out, she will win a few of the next states. But this picture won’t change all that much. That percentage she needs is really really high. As it has been for awhile, Obama pretty much has to say “you know, never mind, you’re right, you should win, I’m dropping out” for her to start to get those sort of percentages.

And the makeup of the rules and credentials committees are such that it will be nearly impossible for her to get any substantive changes done that would affect the outcome. Changes, maybe. Changes that affect the outcome… no.

We are now firmly in Huckabee “I didn’t major in math, I majored in miracles” territory.

[Edit 2008 May 8 13:57 UTC: Corrected Edwards’ percentage from 0.6% to 0.5%.]

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