This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



First Round of KY, OR Updates

86 of 103 delegates from the Kentucky and Oregon primaries are now in. That’s 83.5%.

So far we have 51 Clinton, 35 Obama. That is 59.3% for Clinton so far. A little higher than the 56.3% I had predicted yesterday, but still way way less than the 74.4% Clinton would have needed to be on pace to catch up and win.

Since the last update we also have 10 more superdelegate announcements, 8 for Obama, 2 for Clinton.

This brings our new stats to:

Delegate count is: Obama 1953, Clinton 1770, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 318 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 73 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 256 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 23.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)

Clinton needs 80.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)

Now, at this point, Clinton is putting a lot of emphasis on seating Florida and Michigan, so lets do a quick look at that. Clinton’s best possible scenario would be to fully seat Florida and Michigan as is based on their existing votes, and seat them full force… with all of the Michigan “uncommitted” delegates staying uncommitted.

If so, using numbers from Democratic Convention Watch, Clinton would gain 193 more delegates, Obama would gain 79 more delegates, Edwards would gain 11 more delegates, and the new magic number would be 2209.

Adding those numbers to what we have today, that would bring us to 2032 Obama, 1963 Clinton, 20 Edwards, with 403 delegates without an expressed preference yet. Obama would need 177 delegates to win (43.9%). Clinton would need 246 delegates to win (61.0%).

Now, 61.0% is not 80.5%, but it is STILL a formidable number to get from these undeclared superdelegates and uncommitted pledged delegates. Especially given the situation we’d be in, it would be almost impossible.

And this is Clinton’s best possible case on Michigan and Florida. Since Obama’s folks will have a significant (if not controlling) influence on the committee deciding this, we can be pretty sure that this “best case for Clinton” situation will NOT happen.

But even if it did… Obama is still in a much stronger position and Clinton would have a very hard time getting the win. Again, absent a complete meltdown by Obama.

Oh yeah, and McCain picks up 42 more delegates too.

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