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Second Round of KY, OR Updates

We now have 99 of 103 delegates for KY/OR. At this point 56 for Clinton, 43 for Obama. That is 56.6% for Clinton. I had predicted 56.3%. But she needed 74.4% to be on pace for a win, and she didn’t come close.

Of the delegates above, today’s update included 8 for Obama and 5 for Clinton. In addition, Clinton picked up 2 superdelegates and Obama picked up 1 superdelegate. Today’s net is therefore 9 for Obama and 7 for Clinton.

New stats:

Delegate count is: Obama 1962, Clinton 1777, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 302 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 64 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 249 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 21.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)

Clinton needs 82.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)

Based on the limited polls available so far from Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, Obama will probably pick up about 38 delegates from those states. Which means he only needs to pick up about 26 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination under the existing rules. (Meaning no Florida and no Michigan.)

Now, the situation of Florida and Michigan may well change on the 31st when the rules committee meets. And Clinton yesterday mentioned the possibility of appealing to the credentials committee and taking this all the way to the convention if she does not get the result she wants.

If Clinton gets her best case result (full seating of Michigan and Florida based on the existing elections) we would have:

Delegate Count: Obama 2041, Clinton 1970, Edwards 20

Delegates that would be needed to win: 2209

There would be 387 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama would need 168 more delegates to win.

Clinton would need 239 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that would mean:

Obama would need 43.4% of the remaining delegates to win.

Clinton would need 61.8% of the remaining delegates to win.

Again, that is with Clinton’s best case result… which is highly unlikely. But even with that best case, she would need to be convincing a significantly larger fraction of superdelegates than she has been lately.

Oops, almost forgot. McCain picks up 40 delegates and Paul picks up 4. New Republican totals: McCain 1500, Huckabee 275, Romney 255, Paul 30.

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