This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Closer and Closer (Delegates)

Today one pledged delegate in Alaska moves from Clinton to Obama. Not sure the story behind that one, quite possibly just adjustments as the process finalizes. In addition, Obama gets three more superdelegates and Clinton gets one more superdelegate. Net for today, Obama gains four, Clinton stays even.

Updated stats:

Delegate count is: Obama 1978, Clinton 1780, Edwards 7

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.5%, Clinton 47.3%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 285 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 48 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 246 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 16.8% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)

Clinton needs 86.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)

Now, with the updated numbers from DCW if Clinton gets her best case scenario on Saturday (full seating of Florida and Michigan using existing results) Clinton would gain 193 delegates, Obama would gain 97 delegates and Edwards would gain 11 delegates. The new totals would be Obama 2075, Clinton 1973, Edwards 18. The new magic number would be 2209.

With that:

Obama would need 134 more delegates to win (38.1% of what would then be remaining).

Clinton would need 236 more delegates to win (67.0% of what would then be remaining).

And that is Clinton’s BEST case.

Current (admittedly very limited) polls would indicate Obama getting about 40 delegates from the remaining 3 primaries. Which would mean he only needs about 8 more superdelegates to be able to clinch this thing on June 3rd… with no Michigan and Florida.

Rumor has it that Obama has a few dozen superdelegates lined up who have privately committed to declare in his favor within a week of the primaries ending on June 3rd. If we don’t have Clinton’s best case, but something more like the proposal to seat the two delegations at half strength, that will probably be enough to clinch it.

We shall see. The next big event is the Rules Committee meeting on Saturday. Without it, this would almost certainly be over one week from right now. If they move the finish line back a bit, it will take a little longer, but probably only a few days.

We’re just going through the motions now.

(OK, really, we’ve just going through the motions since April 23rd if not even earlier, but now I think even Hillary knows it… at least I hope she does.)

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