Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
We finally have some results that aren’t just a handful of superdelegates, or minor revisions to a previous state’s tentative results. We have actual new results coming out of a state’s process. In this case, Missouri just finished its Congressional District Conventions, which allocate 24 of the state’s 52 delegates. (The rest will be determined at the State Convention on June 2, or are superdelegates.)
So… how did it turn out?
Romney 12, Santorum 7, Paul 4, Gingrich 1
With 50% of the delegates, Romney exceeds the 40.1% of the delegates he needed to be on pace to get to 1144. None of the rest come even close to the percentages they needed.
In terms of “% of Remaining Needed to Win”:
- Romney: 40.1% -> 39.9%
- Santorum: 78.4% -> 79.4%
- Gingrich: 87.9% -> 89.7%
- Paul: 95.1% -> 96.8%
Now, I’m sure Romney would have liked to have gotten significantly more than 50% here. But 50% will do. He’s comfortably on track to get to where he needs to be, and of course everybody else is still racing toward elimination.
Having said that, we should have the results from Minnesota’s Congressional District Conventions soon. Green Papers hasn’t finalized their results for Minnesota yet, and they haven’t been updating their totals based on the partial results that have been trickling out since March 31st, but they have been updating their notes on the process and all the indications are that… wait for it…
Ron Paul will walk away with more than 83% of the delegates from this stage of the Minnesota process… with Romney completely shut out, getting no delegates at all. Of course, Paul would need to be getting about 97% to be on a pace to catch up and win, but still… 83% is pretty impressive.
That is getting ahead of things though. We’ll talk about Minnesota once Green Papers updates their delegate total from the initial estimates they made after the caucuses in February. For the moment, that hasn’t happened yet.
(Edited 2012 Apr 24 05:44 UTC to add my standard intro paragraph which I had forgotten when I first posted this.)