Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
Updates for three states today.
First of all, Minnesota. The state convention was Friday and Saturday, but our source The Green Papers didn’t update their counts until a few hours after I did my daily scan of the delegate counts on Tuesday. I did my scan at 02:41 UTC yesterday, GP updated their counts sometime between then and 07:00 UTC. If I’d done my scan a little later as I sometimes do, this would have been its own update yesterday, but I didn’t, so it gets included in today’s update instead.
Regardless, based on the results of the state conventions, the estimates for Minnesota change. Previously, the estimates were Paul 24, Santorum 8, Romney 2, Gingrich 2, TBD 4. Now, after the convention: Paul 32, Santorum 2, Gingrich 1, TBD 5. Notice Romney now has no delegates in Minnesota at all. Wow. (Although some of the TBDs may go that way when they eventually choose.) Net for this update in Minnesota: Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Romney -2, Santorum -6. This would be great for Paul except for the fact that he is so far behind that it doesn’t matter. But fun stuff in Minnesota none the less.
Now we get to the two states that voted in primaries on Tuesday. Both are Romney shutouts.
Arkansas: Romney gains 33 delegates. New totals: Romney 35, TBD 1
Kentucky: Romney gains 42 delegates. New totals: Romney 42, TBD 3
So, the total take for the day: Romney +73, Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Santorum -6
New overall totals by our count: Romney 1052, Santorum 255, Gingrich 143, Paul 125.
Romney only needs 92 more delegates to win. That is 12.9% of the remaining delegates (down from 21.0% before today’s update).
Texas is Tuesday and has more than enough delegates to push Romney over the edge.
Tuesday should be it.