States with new poll data since the last update: New Hampshire, Alabama, Illinois, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Wyoming.
In addition to a handful of new polls, this batch of updates includes two sets of 50 states plus DC data from Morning Consult, one released in April covering January through March (with multiple candidate pairs), and another released in July covering April through June (covering only Clinton vs Trump). These span really long time periods and use a slightly different methodology than other polls, so I had initially not included them. But I was convinced by @hominidviews that I actually should include them, so they are now folded into the data.
In most cases, since the middates of the polling periods are fairly far in the past at this point, the addition of these polls only jiggled the lines around in the past rather than changing the situation as of today. Even in the sparsely polled states where these polls did change the average, categories did not generally change.
The one exception for Clinton vs Trump was Missouri:
With the new Morning Consult poll centered in May added, the July PPP poll was enough to end Missouri’s time as a close state that was caused by a March DFM poll that now looks like a pretty clear outlier. So Missouri moves from “Weak Trump” to “Strong Trump” and it is therefore no longer listed as a possible pickup for Clinton.
Back in the past, you can see a few new features added by the Morning Consult polls… a dip in the expected line for a little while in May where Clinton briefly was in the lead in Georgia, and a spike in Clinton’s best case where she got within 5% in Texas… for one day.
The only change that hasn’t already come and gone is the change in Missouri. Clinton’s best case goes from winning by 230 electoral votes down to winning by 210.
Note this is not part of any “convention bump”. This change is due to poll information from before the convention. There should be new polls added soon that will tell us more about the impact of the conventions. This is not that.
Clinton vs Cruz
Oh, and the Morning Consult data had some Clinton vs Cruz information as well. Since that combination is still one of the five best polled combinations, even though Cruz lost, I’ll note the changes: Kentucky went from Strong Cruz to Weak Cruz, and Minnesota went from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton. So Clinton’s best case moved from winning by 188 to winning by 204, and Cruz’s best case went from winning by 30 to winning by 50.
Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.
After West Virginia, Sanders needed 84.90% of the remaining delegates to win, Clinton only needed 15.29%.
In Oregon and Kentucky, Sanders got 62, Clinton got 54.
In other changes since West Virginia due to superdelegate updates, there was a net change of Clinton +1, Sanders -1.
So total change since West Virginia: Sanders +61, Clinton +55.
That is Sanders 52.59%, Clinton 47.41%.
So Clinton met her target, Sanders did not.
New delegate totals: Clinton 2275, Sanders 1539, O’Malley 1.
There are 950 delegates left. Clinton needs 108 of them. Sanders needs 844 of them.
Clinton now needs 11.37% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needs 88.84%.
Update 2016-05-20 16:33 UTC: Superdelegate scan – Clinton +2, Sanders +2.
Update 2016-05-25 02:26 UTC: Superdelegate scan – Clinton +3.
Update 2016-05-25 02:28 UTC: Change from Maryland – Sanders +1, Clinton -1.
Update 2016-05-27 17:05 UTC: Superdelegate scan – Clinton +7, Sanders +1.
Update 2016-05-30 16:06 UTC: Superdelegate scan – Clinton +4, Sanders -1.
Update 2016-06-03 14:20 UTC: Superdelegate scan – Clinton +4, Sanders +3
Update 2016-06-03 14:22 UTC: There was a one delegate adjustment from Clinton to Sanders in Oregon as results were finalized there. I also discovered one Sanders delegate in Michigan I was missing due to a math error on my part which is now fixed. Net change: Sanders +2, Clinton -1.
Update 2016-06-05 03:25 UTC: Superdelegate scan – Clinton -1
Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.
Edit 2016-06-05 05:44 UTC: Corrected a couple details of the list of superdelegate updates to match my logs of the changes that were made. I’d missed logging a couple of the updates here on this post. Dated the updates to approximately when I made the changes.
This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan’s big topics are the Presidential race, the 2015 off-year elections, and the Sinai plane crash. In the Lightning Round we also touch on Bitcoin’s surge, Mythbusters, Twitter’s stars and hearts, and more! We start off though with Ivan on team building exercises, and Sam on locking himself out of his car in college. All the usual fun and excitement!
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Length this week – 1:43:46
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- (0:00:10-0:12:02) But First
- On the road
- Team Building
- Locking keys in the car
- (0:13:20-0:45:21) Election 2016
- Debate Thoughts
- Carson Ahead!
- Bush Failure
- Trump on SNL
- Democratic Polls
- (0:46:23-1:05:37) Election 2015
- Local vs National Bifurcation
- How much trouble are the Dems in?
- Alternating Parties
- Kentucky Polling
- Interpreting Polls
- (1:06:54-1:20:29) Sinai Plane Crash
- GHWB Biography Tidbits
- The Plane Crash
- Was it a bomb?
- Change in tactics for ISIS?
- How will Russia respond?
- Airline Security Implications
- How long until we really know what happened?
- (1:21:34-1:43:26) Lightning Round
- Bitcoin surge
- Movie: Caravan of Courage
- Fred Thompson
- Mythbusters canceled
- YouTube Red
- Twitter stars and hearts
|Romney Best Case
|Obama Best Case
No changes to the three scenarios I track, as the two state called both went exactly as expected. Vermont to Obama, Kentucky to Romney.
The fun is yet to come.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
Updates for three states today.
First of all, Minnesota. The state convention was Friday and Saturday, but our source The Green Papers didn’t update their counts until a few hours after I did my daily scan of the delegate counts on Tuesday. I did my scan at 02:41 UTC yesterday, GP updated their counts sometime between then and 07:00 UTC. If I’d done my scan a little later as I sometimes do, this would have been its own update yesterday, but I didn’t, so it gets included in today’s update instead.
Regardless, based on the results of the state conventions, the estimates for Minnesota change. Previously, the estimates were Paul 24, Santorum 8, Romney 2, Gingrich 2, TBD 4. Now, after the convention: Paul 32, Santorum 2, Gingrich 1, TBD 5. Notice Romney now has no delegates in Minnesota at all. Wow. (Although some of the TBDs may go that way when they eventually choose.) Net for this update in Minnesota: Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Romney -2, Santorum -6. This would be great for Paul except for the fact that he is so far behind that it doesn’t matter. But fun stuff in Minnesota none the less.
Now we get to the two states that voted in primaries on Tuesday. Both are Romney shutouts.
Arkansas: Romney gains 33 delegates. New totals: Romney 35, TBD 1
Kentucky: Romney gains 42 delegates. New totals: Romney 42, TBD 3
So, the total take for the day: Romney +73, Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Santorum -6
New overall totals by our count: Romney 1052, Santorum 255, Gingrich 143, Paul 125.
Romney only needs 92 more delegates to win. That is 12.9% of the remaining delegates (down from 21.0% before today’s update).
Texas is Tuesday and has more than enough delegates to push Romney over the edge.
Tuesday should be it.