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There were no new calls between 01:15 UTC and 01:30 UTC. Between 01:30 UTC and 01:45 UTC, Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama were all called for Romney… as expected. At some point they will need to start calling some of the close states, or it will be a really long night. :-)
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur. Updates for three states today. First of all, Minnesota. The state convention was Friday and Saturday, but our source The Green Papers didn’t update their counts until a few hours after I did my daily scan of the delegate counts on Tuesday. I did my scan at 02:41 UTC yesterday, GP updated their counts sometime between then and 07:00 UTC. If I’d done my scan a little later as I sometimes do, this would have been its own update yesterday, but I didn’t, so it gets included in today’s update instead. Regardless, based on the results of the state conventions, the estimates for Minnesota change. Previously, the estimates were Paul 24, Santorum 8, Romney 2, Gingrich 2, TBD 4. Now, after the convention: Paul 32, Santorum 2, Gingrich 1, TBD 5. Notice Romney now has no delegates in Minnesota at all. Wow. (Although some of the TBDs may go that way when they eventually choose.) Net for this update in Minnesota: Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Romney -2, Santorum -6. This would be great for Paul except for the fact that he is so far behind that it doesn’t matter. But fun stuff in Minnesota none the less. Now we get to the two states that voted in primaries on Tuesday. Both are Romney shutouts. Arkansas: Romney gains 33 delegates. New totals: Romney 35, TBD 1 Kentucky: Romney gains 42 delegates. New totals: Romney 42, TBD 3 So, the total take for the day: Romney +73, Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Santorum -6 New overall totals by our count: Romney 1052, Santorum 255, Gingrich 143, Paul 125. Romney only needs 92 more delegates to win. That is 12.9% of the remaining delegates (down from 21.0% before today’s update). Texas is Tuesday and has more than enough delegates to push Romney over the edge. Tuesday should be it.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur. You may have heard reports of a big Ron Paul win in Nevada this weekend. Ron Paul supporters win 22 of the 25 delegate spots in Nevada and all that. Well, yes. True. However, in Nevada the delegates are still bound on the first ballot at the convention to vote proportionately to the caucus results, and the delegates can be removed and replaced if they attempt to do something different. So the slate of delegates elected in Nevada doesn’t actually change the delegate counts. Something else does however. According to Green Papers the delegates will be awarded proportionally between the candidates still actively in the race, so by suspending their campaigns Santorum and Gingrich lose their delegates and those delegates get reallocated. So the previous estimated allocation in Nevada had been: Romney 14, Gingrich 6, Paul 5, Santorum 3. This now becomes: Romney 20, Paul 8. So net from Nevada for today: Romney +6, Paul +3, Santorum -3, Gingrich -6. Meanwhile, Romney picks up two more supers, one from Alabama and one from Arkansas. So for the day: Romney +8, Paul +3, Santorum -3, Gingrich -6. So of course Romney continues to walk toward the nomination, despite some delegate gains for Paul as well. Wait, but what about Maine? Paul won there over the weekend too, right? Yes. It looks that way. But Green Papers hasn’t updated their “soft count” for Maine yet. I’m sure they will soon. When they do, we’ll update here too. In any case, for now, in terms of “% of remaining needed to win”:
Despite winning some delegates, Paul’s “% of remaining needed to win” remains significantly higher than 100% at 114.4%. The delegates he is accumulating right now are not anywhere near enough to catch up and win… or even to block Romney in combination with Santorum and Gingrich delegates. Sorry. They may let him cause the convention not to go quite the way the Romney folks would like due to some unscripted deviations from the plan, but it won’t be anywhere near what would be needed to actually derail Romney. |
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