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Electoral College: Some post-debate Clinton gains

States with new poll data added since the last update: New Jersey, Florida, Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts.

National Summary

The newest batch of polls… mostly post-debate polls… results in movement toward Clinton and away from Trump, which matches the consensus expectations after the debate this week:

  • Trump’s best case declines from Trump by 92 EV to Trump by 60 EV
  • The tipping point moves from Clinton by 1.3% in NH to Clinton by 2.1% in CO

Looking at the charts:

chart-317

Although polls may still come in that change the shape of the last couple weeks, right now a clear pattern is emerging where both “best cases” have been moving in Clinton’s direction since about September 20th. More states are coming into Clinton’s potential reach, while other states are moving out of Trump’s reach.

Interestingly, the “expected” case, although it has fluctuated as big states move back and forth across the center line, is back at the same place it was in mid-September…  Clinton leading by an extremely narrow 6 electoral votes.

But there are six states where the average shows Trump leading by less than 0.5%…  North Carolina, Nevada, Kansas, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa. Even if you don’t believe Kansas (I am personally dubious about that one), that means there are 74 electoral votes where Trump is hanging on by a thread. If more polls pull those five non-Kansas states away, his expected case drops all the way to an 154 electoral vote loss.

Things look very close in the electoral college right now, but that could change in a hurry!

The volatility of the electoral college measure means to really judge how “close” the race is, we’d be better off looking at the tipping point:

chart-318

Although the tipping point also has ups and downs as states move around, there is a trend here too. Trump peaked on September 7th when Clinton was ahead by only 0.7% (in Nevada). Since then, Trump has been losing ground. With the latest post-debate drop, Clinton’s lead in the tipping point state (now Colorado) is up to 2.1%.

At the moment Trump only has to flip Colorado to be in the lead. And a 2.1% lead is not a huge margin there. This is still close. Just not at close as it was.

So far the post-debate moves actually look more like a continuation of trends that started earlier rather than a big change caused by the debates, but even after five days, most of the close states just have a small number of post-debate polls, so we may not be seeing the complete picture yet.

37.9 days, 2 presidential debates, and 1 VP debate left to go until polls start to close…

State Details

All the state level details for those who want to dig in…

Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton

chart-316

The poll average in Michigan has been moving toward Clinton since September 18th. With the latest update, which included two separate post-debate polls, Clinton’s lead increases to 5.7% which moved the state out of reach for Trump, leading to the reduction of his best case mentioned above.

Didn’t change categories, but moved the tipping point

chart-319

Weak Trump to Weak Clinton then back again

chart-320

With the latest batch of polls Florida moved from just barely Trump to just barely Clinton, then moved right back again. As this round ended, Florida ends up with an 0.3% Trump lead. The bottom line with Florida is it has been “close” for all but a few days since the conventions ended. Unless we start seeing a definitive movement in one direction or another, Florida remains “too close to call”.

Having said that, Trump has been boosted by outlier Google polls. In the chart above, EVERY poll showing Trump with a lead more than 5% has been a Google poll. Those polls really do look like outliers. If you took Google out, Clinton would be maintaining a small but clear lead in Florida… but we include everything, and so Florida is still hovering right around the zero line.

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-01 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-01 (UTC)

  • 00:14:26 Poll Added: Rutgers w/4P [2] in NJ from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-10 – Clinton 50% to Trump 29% https://t.co/5trXEoguHN
  • 00:14:31 Full 4P results: Rutgers w/4P [2] in NJ from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-10 – Clinton 50% to Trump 29% to Johnson 6% to Stein 4%
  • 00:16:00 Poll Added: Rutgers [2] in NJ from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-10 – Clinton 59% to Trump 35% https://t.co/ADmJfRKVpy
  • 00:20:01 Poll Added: Mason-Dixon w/4P in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% https://t.co/PRtRpXMgUL
  • 00:20:06 Full 4P results: Mason-Dixon w/4P in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% to Johnson 7% to Stein 1%
  • 00:20:17 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/PRtRpXuFwb
  • 00:40:26 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 272 to Trump 266 -> Clinton 301 to Trump 237 https://t.co/MfgMiisweZ
  • 00:43:31 Poll Added: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-09-28 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 46.6% to Trump 46.3% https://t.co/ezwDUIo3KA
  • 00:43:36 Full 4P results: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-09-28 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 46.6% to Trump 46.3% to Johnson 3.9% to Stein 1.7%
  • 00:43:47 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/ezwDUIo3KA
  • 00:55:23 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 301 to Trump 237 -> Clinton 272 to Trump 266 https://t.co/0LhEXqUucq
  • 01:02:44 Poll Added: Suffolk w/3P [2] in NV from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 44.20% to Trump 38.20% https://t.co/WEfOi6JhMX
  • 01:02:49 Full 3P results: Suffolk w/3P [2] in NV from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 44.20% to Trump 38.20% to Johnson 6.60%
  • 01:04:51 In that last Suffolk NV poll Castle also got 1.00% and DeLaFuente got 0.60%.
  • 01:06:56 Poll Added: Suffolk [2] in NV from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 36.59% to Trump 31.71% https://t.co/3q8Dn6Y6vo
  • 01:22:19 Poll Added: Detroit News w/4P in MI from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-28 – Clinton 42% to Trump 35% https://t.co/zdc4zbzRUx
  • 01:22:24 Full 4P results: Detroit News w/4P in MI from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-28 – Clinton 42% to Trump 35% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
  • 01:27:45 Poll Added: WBUR w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 41% to Trump 32% https://t.co/SmKbmazhJ9
  • 01:27:50 Full 4P results: WBUR w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 41% to Trump 32% to Johnson 12% to Stein 3%
  • 01:29:16 Poll Added: WBUR w/Lean w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 42% to Trump 35% https://t.co/pHMPFbAwPp
  • 01:29:21 Full 4P results: WBUR w/Lean w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 42% to Trump 35% to Johnson 13% to Stein 4%
  • 01:31:45 Poll Added: WBUR [3] in NH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-29 – Clinton 47% to Trump 38% https://t.co/RNTDc5yGW0
  • 01:40:26 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 1.3% in NH -> Clinton by 2.1% in NH https://t.co/7gBoAJLLLy
  • 01:47:56 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/4P in CA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-28 – Clinton 59% to Trump 33% https://t.co/W5DnLRUxQa
  • 01:48:01 Full 4P results: SurveyUSA w/4P in CA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-28 – Clinton 59% to Trump 33% to Johnson 3% to Stein 2%
  • 01:55:22 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 2.1% in NH -> Clinton by 2.1% in CO https://t.co/FqkxdUioVx
  • 02:00:25 Poll Added: MIRS-GCSI w/4P in MI from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-24 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% https://t.co/oVVYIUaxnO
  • 02:00:30 Full 4P results: MIRS-GCSI w/4P in MI from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-24 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% to Johnson 8% to Stein 1%
  • 02:00:41 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/oVVYIUaxnO
  • 02:25:26 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 223 to Trump 315 -> Clinton 239 to Trump 299 https://t.co/iCc2vXbhDk
  • 16:51:48 Poll Added: GBA w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-09-25 to 2016-09-27 – Clinton 43% to Trump 37% https://t.co/vVnRE0Xmo2
  • 16:51:54 Full 4P results: GBA w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-09-25 to 2016-09-27 – Clinton 43% to Trump 37% to Johnson 11% to Stein 4%
  • 16:53:22 Poll Added: GBA [2] in NH from 2016-09-25 to 2016-09-27 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% https://t.co/vMGrFF7fNX
  • 17:04:19 The next set of results are additional information from a better source on a UMass MA poll I originally added on the 27th.
  • 17:09:35 Poll Added: UMass LV w/Lean w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 47% to Trump 34% https://t.co/jadgyvCMRk
  • 17:09:40 Full 4P results: UMass LV w/Lean w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 47% to Trump 34% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
  • 17:12:30 Poll Added: UMass RV w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 42% to Trump 31% https://t.co/x1FjcaWVXH
  • 17:12:36 Full 4P results: UMass RV w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 42% to Trump 31% to Johnson 9% to Stein 2%
  • 17:14:32 Poll Added: UMass Rv w/Lean w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 44% to Trump 33% https://t.co/DONV1yNWMt
  • 17:14:37 Full 4P results: UMass Rv w/Lean w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 44% to Trump 33% to Johnson 10% to Stein 3%
  • 17:52:38 Next item is adding 2 way result to 4 way Detroit News MI poll I added last night.
  • 17:53:38 Poll Added: Detroit News [2] in MI from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-28 – Clinton 46% to Trump 39% https://t.co/RttvCqO2bD
  • 18:47:45 Another round of data entry done. Polls added in NJ/FL/NV/MI/NH/CA/MA. Notable change in MI and Tipping Point. @ElectionGraphs post later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-01 (UTC)