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October 2016
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Electoral College: Trump drop continues (mostly)

States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states, DC, and the Maine congressional districts

Notable changes in: Arizona, Indiana, Maine (CD2), and the tipping point

National Summary

At this point we have many polls that are fully or partially after the “Trump Tape” release on the 7th, but this batch of polls still included many where most of the time in the field was before that. And of course the state averages here are based on at least the last five polls in each state, so reach even further back in time. The close states tend to be based on polls with middates going back 1-3 weeks.

All that is to say that the changes we are seeing now are starting to include the fallout from that event, but haven’t yet fully factored it in.

With that out of the way, the changes for this round:

  • The expected result moves from Clinton by 176 EV to Clinton by 154 EV
  • The tipping point moves from Clinton by 5.9% in MN to Clinton by 6.5% in PA
  • Clinton’s best case improves from winning by 202 EV to winning by 226 EV

So wait, the expected result moved toward Trump! Why is the title of this post about Trump’s drop continuing?

Well, basically because the improvement in the expected case is a result of Arizona moving from just barely Clinton, to just barely Trump. Either way it is really too close to call. It may flip back again with the next update. Or maybe it won’t.

But meanwhile, polling changes in Minnesota, Virginia, and Pennsylvania moved the tipping point further toward Clinton, meaning that overall Trump has to move polls even further in order to actually flip the results of the election.

And Clinton expanded her best case a bit as well.

Here are the charts:

chart-338

chart-339

The trend in both charts is clear. After peaking right before the 1st debate Trump has been falling. This is more dramatic in the tipping point chart, but it is clear no matter which way you look at the race.

There is no time left for a Trump comeback from behind win from these levels. It would take something massive that would completely reverse everything we know about this race so far. It would be an unprecedented reversal. Impossible? No. Incredibly unlikely? Yes.

A few weeks ago Trump had managed to make this race close. But it was short-lived. Starting with the debate he has been dropping steadily. We don’t yet have signs that we have hit bottom either. There have been new negative stories about Trump almost every day. Further drops would not be surprising.

We’re no longer really talking about who will win this election. Clinton will win this election. The only question is by how much.

25.8 days left until we have the first actual election results.

State Details

Weak Clinton to Weak Trump

chart-340

The latest polls not only move Arizona from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump, but since older polls were added, they actually moved the past curve Trumpward, such that we no longer have a recent period with Clinton in the lead at all. The trend has still been away from Trump toward Clinton since the 1st debate, but Clinton hasn’t pulled Arizona over to her side quite yet.

Moving into Clinton’s reach

chart-341

Trump’s lead in Indiana has been diminishing since late August. With the latest updates Trump is up 4.8%. Trump still leads, but it is now close enough that a Clinton win does not seem impossible. Still a stretch to be sure, but no longer unimaginable.

chart-342

Maine’s 2nd congressional district had looked like it would definitely split from the state this cycle giving Trump a somewhat unusual pickup. With the post-debate polls, Trump still leads, but his lead is slipping, and so it now seems that this single electoral vote is now up for grabs. Clinton could steal it back.

States that moved the tipping point

chart-345

chart-344

chart-343

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-13 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-13 (UTC)

  • 04:31:55 Poll Added: CVoter in RI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 57.8% to Trump 38.6% https://t.co/7wqQX4Noji
  • 04:37:37 Poll Added: CVoter in SC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 42.2% to Trump 52.6% https://t.co/MbIFbb35Bh
  • 04:42:05 Poll Added: CVoter in SD from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.6% to Trump 53.7% https://t.co/hveoBozZeH
  • 04:45:08 Poll Added: CVoter in TN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.3% to Trump 55.2% https://t.co/q0OYshl3yQ
  • 04:48:15 Poll Added: CVoter in TX from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.3% to Trump 53.0% https://t.co/mPVETpLpbV
  • 04:54:03 Poll Added: CVoter in UT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 29.7% to Trump 64.2% https://t.co/zrp83LlOrt
  • 04:57:40 Poll Added: CVoter in VT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 62.2% to Trump 33.3% https://t.co/LKUC4uNKQX
  • 05:02:20 Poll Added: CVoter in VA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.3% to Trump 46.8% https://t.co/3LK8Dr6b9F
  • 05:05:46 Poll Added: CVoter in WA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 53.4% to Trump 41.7% https://t.co/WcPmmuMv5n
  • 05:07:49 Poll Added: CVoter in DC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 80.3% to Trump 13.9% https://t.co/09qmyGnGy5
  • 05:10:52 Poll Added: CVoter in WV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 57.7% https://t.co/PdwwDQwFKN
  • 05:14:21 Poll Added: CVoter in WI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 50.5% to Trump 45.6% https://t.co/PLSVC63b7i
  • 05:14:38 Clinton vs Trump state category change: WI has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/PLSVC63b7i
  • 05:17:16 Poll Added: CVoter in WY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30.7% to Trump 63.0% https://t.co/MEHGrZABP1
  • 06:06:29 Poll Added: BWCRI [2] in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 48.1% to Trump 37.6% https://t.co/0ZsofSz58R
  • 06:08:44 Poll Added: BWCRI w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 43.2% to Trump 34.4% https://t.co/pWViBREWYO
  • 06:08:49 Full 4P results: BWCRI w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 43.2% to Trump 34.4% to Johnson 9.5% to Stein 2.7%
  • 06:16:24 Poll Added: Detroit News w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 42.2% to Trump 30.6% https://t.co/3JZuXqLT37
  • 06:16:29 Full 4P results: Detroit News w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 42.2% to Trump 30.6% to Johnson 10.3% to Stein 4.6%
  • 06:18:49 Poll Added: Detroit News [2] in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 47% to Trump 33% https://t.co/Wo2ADdntKg
  • 06:28:04 Poll Added: PPP in NV from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 47% to Trump 43% https://t.co/9AQZ2WZk9k
  • 06:35:55 Poll Added: PPP in NH from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48% to Trump 37% https://t.co/JZ1g2EfwDP
  • 06:44:49 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.4% to Trump 29.9% https://t.co/Hrhgj4KhOV
  • 06:46:50 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.8% to Trump 40.1% https://t.co/CMgeP37smh
  • 06:48:46 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.0% to Trump 36.1% https://t.co/Zuvdu6yezc
  • 06:48:51 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.0% to Trump 36.1% to Johnson 8.8% to Stein 2.9%
  • 07:15:41 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 43.8% to Trump 27.6% https://t.co/zTlUfQSfa6
  • 07:18:00 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 52.8% to Trump 35.7% https://t.co/EfJEXsv4Sa
  • 07:19:37 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 32.3% https://t.co/BYbVw1VVqr
  • 07:19:42 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 32.3% to Johnson 7.3% to Stein 3.4%
  • 07:22:20 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.6% to Trump 32.3% https://t.co/5qAnvumWdk
  • 07:24:38 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.4% to Trump 45.0% https://t.co/M22WhqhxOA
  • 07:26:07 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.8% to Trump 40.4% https://t.co/XPoGomPScF
  • 07:26:12 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.8% to Trump 40.4% to Johnson 10.4% to Stein 2.4%
  • 07:26:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: ME-CD2 has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/XPoGomygO5
  • 07:47:43 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 381 to Trump 157 -> Clinton 382 to Trump 156 https://t.co/DPqeyId1XB
  • 18:10:34 Poll Added: Marquette [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 45% to Trump 40% https://t.co/XMBpj4wKJR
  • 18:13:24 Poll Added: Marquette w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41% to Trump 35% https://t.co/Hqq4TJiLFj
  • 18:13:29 Full 4P results: Marquette w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41% to Trump 35% to Johnson 11% to Stein 3%
  • 18:15:22 Poll Added: Marquette LV [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% https://t.co/9UgxOagnhq
  • 18:17:06 Poll Added: Marquette LV w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44% to Trump 37% https://t.co/j3CjzJt1Cr
  • 18:17:11 Full 4P results: Marquette LV w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44% to Trump 37% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
  • 18:21:10 Poll Added: Marquette LV Thu w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 40% to Trump 41% https://t.co/6VnYmZaoQZ
  • 18:21:15 Full 4P results: Marquette LV Thu w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 40% to Trump 41% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
  • 18:23:16 Poll Added: Marquette LV Fri w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% https://t.co/VNgXllXAsD
  • 18:23:21 Full 4P results: Marquette LV Fri w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% to Johnson 8% to Stein 2%
  • 18:25:55 Poll Added: Marquette LV Sat/Sun w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-08 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49% to Trump 30% https://t.co/9jKz477de8
  • 18:26:01 Full 4P results: Marquette LV Sat/Sun w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-08 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49% to Trump 30% to Johnson 9% to Stein 5%
  • 18:35:14 Poll Added: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 44.1% https://t.co/9TmDIkErbw
  • 18:35:19 Full 4P results: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 44.1% to Johnson 5.3% to Stein 0.8%
  • 18:38:42 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in MO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-12 – Clinton 41% to Trump 46% https://t.co/7NY6hnBtLb
  • 18:38:47 Full 4P results: Monmouth w/4P in MO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-12 – Clinton 41% to Trump 46% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
  • 18:43:01 Poll Added: Y2 Analytics w/3P in UT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 26% to Trump 26% https://t.co/ydzKcKmAgY
  • 18:43:06 Full 3P results: Y2 Analytics w/3P in UT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 26% to Trump 26% to Johnson 14%
  • 18:45:02 Note that Y2 poll also had McMullin at 22%. If more polls show him that close, @ElectionGraphs has a lot of work to do… in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 19:18:11 Poll Added: Roanoke in VA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 45% to Trump 36% https://t.co/8uCTix5Ky5
  • 19:30:22 A round of poll entry complete. All 50 states, DC, and ME congressional districts. Blog post over at @ElectionGraphs coming later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-13 (UTC)