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Electoral College: Trump improves a bit more

States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states and DC.

Notable changes in: Ohio, Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and the tipping point

National Summary

Despite the widespread view that the time between the Vice Presidential debate and the present has essentially been non-stop bad news for Trump that could only cause his number to fall, and the fact that the national popular vote numbers do show this kind of trend, the electoral college view has just plain not shown that. In fact, looking at the various electoral college numbers we track here, things have mostly been moving in Trump’s direction since the 2nd debate. In the latest update, we have these changes:

Good for Trump:

  • Expected case moves from a 154 EV win for Clinton to a 140 EV win for Clinton
  • Tipping point moves from Clinton by 5.4% in VA to Clinton by 4.9% in PA
  • Trump best case improves from a 6 EV loss to a 34 EV win

Good for Clinton:

  • Clinton best case improves from a 204 EV win to a 238 EV win

While Clinton’s best case does improve a bit (although this may be due to outliers, see state details below), for the most part the movement here is toward Trump. It is not a huge movement, but it also doesn’t look like Trump continuing to crash.

Here are the charts:

chart-8

chart-9

While we do have Indiana and Kansas moving into the “Weak Trump” category, and thus expanding Clinton’s best case, the net changes for the expected case and tipping point are both in Trump’s direction, and Trump improves his best case as well, with Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania down from where it was at the VP debate.

Looking at both charts, while Trump may have improved a bit from his lows, what this really looks like is that we have reached a plateau and things have basically been flat since the VP debate, minus some jiggles around the edges by states that are right near my category boundaries.

There are still events that aren’t factored in here, including some of the later sexual assault allegations, and of course the third debate. So things may start moving again in the next few updates. But for now…  basically flat.

The “best case”, if Trump wins all his states, plus all the states where he is within 5%, now once again registers a narrow Trump win. But that would still require either a fairly large systematic polling error, or a last minute Trump surge. The “bubble” shows the extreme range of “conceivable possibilities”, but the edges of the bubble are still very unlikely. We’re far more likely to get results closer to the “expected” line.

Looking at the expected result, we are once again we are in the zone where Trump does better than McCain, but worse than Romney. That is a solid Clinton win, but not any sort of unprecedented loss for Trump. Just a normal sort of electoral loss. At least in terms of the electoral college.

We’ll see if anything causes that to change.

19.3 days left until we start getting real vote counts instead of polls…

State Details

Weak Clinton to Weak Trump

chart-10

Trump now leads Ohio by 0.9%, but Ohio has been bouncing up and down right around the center line for months. It had been trending toward Clinton until a recent batch of polls that were better for Trump. Really could go either way.

Weak Trump to Weak Clinton

chart-11

Clinton is now at +1.6% in Arizona. The state has been trending in her direction since the 1st debate. It is still close though, and this could be reversed. There is a reason we call the “weak” states weak.

Into reach for Trump

chart-12

Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania grew considerably after the 1st debate, but has been shrinking again since the VP debate. It now stands at only 4.9%, which means we once again consider it within reach for Trump. If Trump managed to stretch out and win Pennsylvania, his overall shot of winning the White House is significantly greater. But he has never led in the Pennsylvania poll average. So that will still take a significant move from where we are now…

Into reach for Clinton

chart-13

The Election Graphs average now has Trump’s lead in Indiana down to only 4.0%. This puts it in the “Weak Trump” category. I’m not sure I really believe this though. This is pulled downward by two Google polls showing Clinton actually leading in Indiana, which are outliers compared to the rest of the Indiana results. Without Google, the average would be Trump leading by 8.0%. Indiana is closer than it was a few months ago. It HAS been trending slowly away from Trump. But take Indiana as a swing state with a dose of salt until non-Google polls show it there too.

chart-14

Use the rest of your salt for Kansas, and for the same reason. Google. Without the Google polls, the average in Kansas would not be Trump by 2.7%, it would be Trump by 15.0%. Kansas is lightly polled, so Google has an outsized influence. And the Google results are WAY off from what any other pollster has seen.

Also impacted the tipping point

chart-15

A note about McMullin

In the last week or two McMullin has spiked in Utah. Some individual polls now even show him leading in Utah. All of the current Election Graphs metrics and charts operate under the assumption that no third party has a realistic shot at winning electoral votes. I have had the outline of a contingency plan on how to modify the site to accommodate 3rd parties that might win electoral votes for months, but activating it would take quite a lot of time and effort. If a 3rd candidate had gotten to that position a month or two ago, the site would definitely have been revamped to adjust for that possibility. As it is, there realistically is no longer time to do that before election day.

Right now the Real Clear Politics average in Utah has McMullin 6.4% behind the lead. The 538 average in Utah has him 11.1% behind the lead. If/when McMullin is within 5% according to either of these averages, I will add notes to both the Utah and National pages talking about the possibility of McMullin winning Utah’s 6 electoral votes, but I probably won’t try to revamp the site to change absolutely everything to account for the possibility. I’ll try to have something ready for 2020 just in case though. :-)

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks a state poll based estimate of the Electoral College. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

Amy is TWENTY ONE!!!

photo-oct-20-03-51-16

Amy and Brandy are in Las Vegas to celebrate her 21st birthday. In the picture above, Amy reacts to dirt in one of Alex’s “Let’s Plant” videos that isn’t published yet. 

As of 07:33 UTC today (12:33 AM Pacific, 3:33 AM Eastern) Amy is officially 21 years old once you take into account leap years, the fact that years aren’t an even number of days, etc. I’m just that kind of geek.

In any case, Happy Birthday Amy! Enjoy your birthday vacation. Sorry Alex and I couldn’t share more of it! But you’ll have more fun without us. :-)

Can’t believe Amy is an ADULT. Crazy. Just crazy.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-19 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-19 (UTC)

  • 01:59:46 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KY has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/h1kRFlk3CI
  • 02:01:39 Poll Added: Cofounder w/4P in KY from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 23.9% to Trump 35.4% https://t.co/riC4KshkEP
  • 02:01:44 Full 4P results: Cofounder w/4P in KY from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 23.9% to Trump 35.4% to Johnson 7.4% to Stein 3.2%
  • 02:24:41 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 34.60% to Trump 29.98% https://t.co/E4MqKwpkoR
  • 02:24:46 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 34.60% to Trump 29.98% to Johnson 4.87%
  • 02:26:22 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 19.61% to Trump 54.78% https://t.co/X29Zn6xaF2
  • 02:26:27 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 19.61% to Trump 54.78% to Johnson 4.88%
  • 02:28:42 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 34.43% to Trump 38.13% https://t.co/vZwRJC9vMb
  • 02:28:47 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 34.43% to Trump 38.13% to Johnson 9.55%
  • 02:30:37 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 40.02% to Trump 30.69% https://t.co/l8p9ruZtxY
  • 02:30:42 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 40.02% to Trump 30.69% to Johnson 7.81%
  • 02:30:57 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AZ has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/l8p9ruZtxY
  • 02:48:35 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 328 to Trump 210 -> Clinton 339 to Trump 199 https://t.co/WBeuKknBFJ
  • 03:08:06 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 48.27% to Trump 26.89% https://t.co/jExv5Ov8ea
  • 03:08:12 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 48.27% to Trump 26.89% to Johnson 7.23%
  • 03:10:18 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CO from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 42.95% to Trump 23.66% https://t.co/p4FGriImZD
  • 03:10:23 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CO from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 42.95% to Trump 23.66% to Johnson 11.42%
  • 03:13:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 48.96% to Trump 27.69% https://t.co/a9d0dPenAI
  • 03:13:08 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 48.96% to Trump 27.69% to Johnson 4.65%
  • 03:14:54 Poll Added: Google w/3P in DC from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 58.06% to Trump 21.25% https://t.co/JHq61OwoEr
  • 03:14:59 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in DC from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 58.06% to Trump 21.25% to Johnson 1.81%
  • 03:16:42 Poll Added: Google w/3P in DE from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 41.18% to Trump 28.45% https://t.co/PIi4RPnmYf
  • 03:16:47 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in DE from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 41.18% to Trump 28.45% to Johnson 5.07%
  • 03:18:35 Poll Added: Google w/3P in FL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 36.93% to Trump 39.19% https://t.co/KwXe9nCFfr
  • 03:18:40 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in FL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 36.93% to Trump 39.19% to Johnson 6.43%
  • 03:20:51 Poll Added: Google w/3P in GA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 30.22% to Trump 41.25% https://t.co/uTQyboDDYz
  • 03:20:56 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in GA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 30.22% to Trump 41.25% to Johnson 8.09%
  • 03:22:30 Poll Added: Google w/3P in HI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 51.35% to Trump 20.40% https://t.co/aElmpe7x3d
  • 03:22:35 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in HI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 51.35% to Trump 20.40% to Johnson 1.49%
  • 03:24:42 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 32.59% to Trump 35.59% https://t.co/Y5pPI4R15f
  • 03:24:48 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 32.59% to Trump 35.59% to Johnson 7.18%
  • 03:27:17 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ID from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 23.38% to Trump 33.65% https://t.co/dFLxIE6cRw
  • 03:27:22 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ID from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 23.38% to Trump 33.65% to Johnson 7.98%
  • 03:29:41 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 36.05% to Trump 32.23% https://t.co/NYBgyngQOg
  • 03:29:46 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 36.05% to Trump 32.23% to Johnson 7.66%
  • 03:32:08 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IN from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 38.24% to Trump 32.72% https://t.co/dP3Kr28FwI
  • 03:32:13 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IN from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 38.24% to Trump 32.72% to Johnson 7.76%
  • 03:32:29 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IN has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/dP3Kr28FwI
  • 03:53:05 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 371 to Trump 167 -> Clinton 382 to Trump 156 https://t.co/xBoj9TmPS4
  • 04:05:47 Poll Added: Google w/3P in KS from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 45.87% to Trump 26.74% https://t.co/ZK8NiovkD0
  • 04:05:52 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in KS from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 45.87% to Trump 26.74% to Johnson 6.61%
  • 04:06:10 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KS has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/ZK8NiovkD0
  • 04:23:20 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 382 to Trump 156 -> Clinton 388 to Trump 150 https://t.co/cnFtkO5u3e
  • 04:23:21 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 339 to Trump 199 -> Clinton 345 to Trump 193 https://t.co/cnFtkO5u3e
  • 04:41:00 Poll Added: Google w/3P in KY from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 29.49% to Trump 41.89% https://t.co/QhyBSt7T5d
  • 04:41:05 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in KY from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 29.49% to Trump 41.89% to Johnson 7.64%
  • 04:46:40 Poll Added: Google w/3P in LA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 25.82% to Trump 49.54% https://t.co/zjElKBb3OM
  • 04:46:44 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in LA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 25.82% to Trump 49.54% to Johnson 6.52%
  • 04:48:33 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 52.83% to Trump 18.93% https://t.co/E6x6olsdOz
  • 04:48:38 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 52.83% to Trump 18.93% to Johnson 5.10%
  • 04:51:23 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MD from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 47.49% to Trump 24.96% https://t.co/mkqlZGnTC2
  • 04:51:28 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MD from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 47.49% to Trump 24.96% to Johnson 7.85%
  • 04:53:04 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ME-All from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 42.77% to Trump 25.71% https://t.co/rjo6BVXYhJ
  • 04:53:10 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ME-All from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 42.77% to Trump 25.71% to Johnson 9.22%
  • 04:54:50 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 33.60% to Trump 33.62% https://t.co/O95QqHU01l
  • 04:54:55 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 33.60% to Trump 33.62% to Johnson 6.68%
  • 04:57:38 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MN from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 35.74% to Trump 30.31% https://t.co/CunJzJfyo7
  • 04:57:43 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MN from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 35.74% to Trump 30.31% to Johnson 7.23%
  • 05:37:15 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MO from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 37.93% to Trump 26.95% https://t.co/OHQSMejPak
  • 05:37:20 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MO from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 37.93% to Trump 26.95% to Johnson 7.76%
  • 05:57:38 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MS from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 22.04% to Trump 53.32% https://t.co/dEVlReWGuG
  • 05:57:43 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MS from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 22.04% to Trump 53.32% to Johnson 6.06%
  • 05:59:47 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 27.78% to Trump 28.31% https://t.co/1ootDCs3kM
  • 05:59:52 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 27.78% to Trump 28.31% to Johnson 13.84%
  • 06:01:32 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NC from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 35.61% to Trump 38.39% https://t.co/SDsfNuv6VJ
  • 06:01:37 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NC from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 35.61% to Trump 38.39% to Johnson 5.17%
  • 06:03:18 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ND from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 17.11% to Trump 41.53% https://t.co/grlnb5oLi7
  • 06:03:23 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ND from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 17.11% to Trump 41.53% to Johnson 10.23%
  • 06:05:01 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 27.82% to Trump 40.76% https://t.co/OdSbYbkqOm
  • 06:05:06 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 27.82% to Trump 40.76% to Johnson 6.04%
  • 06:06:47 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 47.86% to Trump 23.29% https://t.co/23lRqYN5Yg
  • 06:06:52 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 47.86% to Trump 23.29% to Johnson 11.46%
  • 06:09:18 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 39.82% to Trump 32.04% https://t.co/4NWFMplLSa
  • 06:09:23 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 39.82% to Trump 32.04% to Johnson 3.81%
  • 06:11:04 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 40.30% to Trump 22.32% https://t.co/Sg8K4IUv35
  • 06:13:09 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 40.30% to Trump 22.32% to Johnson 14.30%
  • 06:13:28 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NM has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/Sg8K4IUv35
  • 06:14:42 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 33.60% to Trump 35.34% https://t.co/ej9nqmADil
  • 06:14:47 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 33.60% to Trump 35.34% to Johnson 10.78%
  • 06:16:29 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 47.36% to Trump 27.70% https://t.co/TfB41yUFax
  • 06:16:34 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 47.36% to Trump 27.70% to Johnson 4.92%
  • 06:18:23 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 34.87% to Trump 35.98% https://t.co/gBAQALwXdu
  • 06:18:28 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 34.87% to Trump 35.98% to Johnson 7.24%
  • 06:20:00 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 33.66% to Trump 44.49% https://t.co/jubjm3p7ky
  • 06:20:06 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 33.66% to Trump 44.49% to Johnson 6.91%
  • 06:22:16 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 43.67% to Trump 24.50% https://t.co/F74X39TpM2
  • 06:22:21 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 43.67% to Trump 24.50% to Johnson 6.62%
  • 06:24:48 Poll Added: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 38.86% to Trump 36.06% https://t.co/UT9J7apsvU
  • 06:24:53 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 38.86% to Trump 36.06% to Johnson 6.87%
  • 06:39:08 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 6.8% in PA -> Clinton by 6% in PA https://t.co/swKKNgfUo7
  • 07:00:36 Poll Added: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 57.33% to Trump 13.05% https://t.co/Nmdk8L8sZ1
  • 07:00:41 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 57.33% to Trump 13.05% to Johnson 2.26%
  • 07:03:32 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 29.99% to Trump 44.27% https://t.co/fTO3zoAiH4
  • 07:03:37 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 29.99% to Trump 44.27% to Johnson 5.41%
  • 07:03:53 Clinton vs Trump state category change: SC has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/fTO3zoAiH4
  • 07:06:16 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 28.56% to Trump 38.29% https://t.co/mpvnX66SA2
  • 07:06:22 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 28.56% to Trump 38.29% to Johnson 8.63%
  • 07:08:02 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 31.08% to Trump 43.00% https://t.co/hwhPDOvZ0f
  • 07:08:07 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 31.08% to Trump 43.00% to Johnson 6.51%
  • 07:10:01 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 29.79% to Trump 41.49% https://t.co/FcJwn4a1Rq
  • 07:10:05 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 29.79% to Trump 41.49% to Johnson 7.83%
  • 07:12:01 Poll Added: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 15.11% to Trump 21.41% https://t.co/INnCR9qknA
  • 07:12:06 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 15.11% to Trump 21.41% to Johnson 10.92%
  • 07:13:41 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 40.76% to Trump 28.22% https://t.co/Gy3iloTKc8
  • 07:13:46 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 40.76% to Trump 28.22% to Johnson 8.59%
  • 07:17:43 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 65.93% to Trump 10.76% https://t.co/ljMfykTXwv
  • 07:17:49 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 65.93% to Trump 10.76% to Johnson 6.75%
  • 07:19:24 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 43.16% to Trump 26.71% https://t.co/dypM8ce4hs
  • 07:19:29 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 43.16% to Trump 26.71% to Johnson 6.97%
  • 07:21:19 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 42.17% to Trump 27.33% https://t.co/C9RLtMvNu4
  • 07:21:24 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 42.17% to Trump 27.33% to Johnson 6.54%
  • 07:23:07 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 23.10% to Trump 58.73% https://t.co/5vIwiNIRpH
  • 07:23:12 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 23.10% to Trump 58.73% to Johnson 3.69%
  • 07:25:08 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 16.58% to Trump 51.90% https://t.co/xdisIXSFM0
  • 07:25:13 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 16.58% to Trump 51.90% to Johnson 12.22%
  • 07:40:21 Poll Added: Zia w/4P in NM from 2016-09-24 to 2016-09-25 – Clinton 41.8% to Trump 36.6% https://t.co/21COEKeCku
  • 07:40:26 Full 4P results: Zia w/4P in NM from 2016-09-24 to 2016-09-25 – Clinton 41.8% to Trump 36.6% to Johnson 16% to Stein 2%
  • 07:43:11 Poll Added: Zia w/4P in NM from 2016-10-11 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 46.2% to Trump 36% https://t.co/AC3hJ4QbQN
  • 07:43:15 Full 4P results: Zia w/4P in NM from 2016-10-11 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 46.2% to Trump 36% to Johnson 11.8% to Stein 1.7%
  • 07:43:35 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NM has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/AC3hJ57Nfn
  • 08:19:06 Poll Added: Power (GCS) w/3P in UT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 22.8% to Trump 22.6% https://t.co/PiafNWpKN1
  • 08:19:11 Full 3P results: Power (GCS) w/3P in UT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 22.8% to Trump 22.6% to Johnson 8.8%
  • 08:19:51 Note the Power (GCS) poll in Utah also included McMullin, who came in at 18.0%. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 08:29:42 Poll Added: MRI [2] in LA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 33% to Trump 47% https://t.co/cx7mPw4kmx
  • 08:30:53 Poll Added: MRI w/Lean [2] in LA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 35% to Trump 52% https://t.co/pfdleRfgen
  • 08:34:59 Poll Added: CVoter in AL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 37.8% to Trump 57.1% https://t.co/e1QRpZrneN
  • 08:37:33 Poll Added: CVoter in AK from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 41.3% to Trump 54.1% https://t.co/gS6YYu54NV
  • 08:40:42 Poll Added: CVoter in AZ from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 44.0% to Trump 50.6% https://t.co/dlLG8bip6c
  • 08:43:06 Poll Added: CVoter in AR from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 37.4% to Trump 56.7% https://t.co/1my1Ntez84
  • 08:45:35 Poll Added: CVoter in CA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 58.3% to Trump 37.4% https://t.co/WEFHxjYsmn
  • 08:47:14 Poll Added: CVoter in CO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 49.7% to Trump 45.1% https://t.co/FRrzCU3Hkh
  • 08:49:18 Poll Added: CVoter in CT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 54.7% to Trump 41.7% https://t.co/FN5fVG1wmz
  • 08:51:27 Poll Added: CVoter in DE from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 55.5% to Trump 41.6% https://t.co/vrltXP3lQx
  • 08:53:50 Poll Added: CVoter in FL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 46.3% https://t.co/bE6gH6geS9
  • 08:55:47 Poll Added: CVoter in GA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 45.1% to Trump 48.8% https://t.co/bxR260A2nz
  • 08:58:01 Poll Added: CVoter in HI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 64.7% to Trump 32.5% https://t.co/Vxr8zSHEs0
  • 08:59:42 Poll Added: CVoter in ID from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 34.0% to Trump 60.0% https://t.co/GHlodcdwB8
  • 09:01:19 Poll Added: CVoter in IL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 55.5% to Trump 40.2% https://t.co/jByEn0069p
  • 09:03:08 Poll Added: CVoter in IN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 43.1% to Trump 52.7% https://t.co/WG1UIbViue
  • 09:07:31 Poll Added: CVoter in IA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 48.6% to Trump 47.7% https://t.co/RxJibXdH0c
  • 09:09:20 Poll Added: CVoter in KS from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 39.5% to Trump 55.5% https://t.co/SKPwqjfgPR
  • 09:09:38 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KS has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/SKPwqjfgPR
  • 09:35:13 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 345 to Trump 193 -> Clinton 339 to Trump 199 https://t.co/MJWIfPJ3F7
  • 09:39:12 Poll Added: CVoter in KY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 38.1% to Trump 57.6% https://t.co/8YYriZnR82
  • 09:40:56 Poll Added: CVoter in LA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 40.8% to Trump 54.7% https://t.co/9hkGiS6pmK
  • 09:42:41 Poll Added: CVoter in ME-All from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 55.0% to Trump 41.6% https://t.co/u4xbRfk5wP
  • 09:44:08 Poll Added: CVoter in MD from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 58.7% to Trump 37.1% https://t.co/HcKYmfdFP0
  • 09:46:27 Poll Added: CVoter in MA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 57.9% to Trump 38.9% https://t.co/cMO6p8UNxp
  • 09:50:24 Poll Added: CVoter in MI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 51.7% to Trump 44.3% https://t.co/4RATVx87FA
  • 09:52:09 Poll Added: CVoter in MN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 50.9% to Trump 45.7% https://t.co/pVhn1XcAr2
  • 09:54:35 Poll Added: CVoter in MS from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 41.9% to Trump 53.9% https://t.co/bjQUqLt2nO
  • 09:57:00 Poll Added: CVoter in MO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 44.5% to Trump 51.4% https://t.co/uEsITHfEze
  • 09:59:01 Poll Added: CVoter in MT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 40.6% to Trump 54.5% https://t.co/38hhxC9DET
  • 09:59:20 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MT has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/38hhxC9DET
  • 10:00:51 Poll Added: CVoter in NE-All from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 38.7% to Trump 57.2% https://t.co/UAUDxAKPny
  • 10:03:12 Poll Added: CVoter in NV from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 48.8% to Trump 44.8% https://t.co/00JlBCkqjt
  • 10:05:22 Poll Added: CVoter in NH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 50.1% to Trump 45.8% https://t.co/N0kkk07R2f
  • 10:05:37 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NH has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/N0kkjZQfDF
  • 10:07:35 Poll Added: CVoter in NJ from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 57.1% to Trump 39.4% https://t.co/kvOtO0pCbM
  • 10:09:46 Poll Added: CVoter in NM from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 50.5% to Trump 43.8% https://t.co/uBBkeiFl82
  • 10:11:31 Poll Added: CVoter in NY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 58.7% to Trump 37.5% https://t.co/qHRuk1EMOI
  • 10:13:44 Poll Added: CVoter in NC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 48.0% to Trump 47.7% https://t.co/aMI0WXXPwd
  • 10:15:40 Poll Added: CVoter in ND from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 36.6% to Trump 55.9% https://t.co/giUhlIAszy
  • 10:18:19 Poll Added: CVoter in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 50.3% to Trump 46.1% https://t.co/oYN6q6UzaO
  • 10:20:15 Poll Added: CVoter in OK from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 33.5% to Trump 62.6% https://t.co/9rV6RC4BBY
  • 10:22:34 Poll Added: CVoter in OR from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 51.1% to Trump 42.5% https://t.co/UuogDqipuh
  • 10:25:29 Poll Added: CVoter in PA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 49.9% to Trump 46.0% https://t.co/k17KlIXIZv
  • 10:25:44 Clinton vs Trump state category change: PA has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/k17KlIXIZv
  • 10:39:06 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 6% in PA -> Clinton by 4.9% in PA https://t.co/xt6KsnZyXv
  • 10:39:07 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 272 to Trump 266 -> Clinton 252 to Trump 286 https://t.co/xt6KsnZyXv
  • 10:41:32 Poll Added: CVoter in RI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 58.3% to Trump 38.6% https://t.co/zNb8qsCtjg
  • 10:43:58 Poll Added: CVoter in SC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 42.4% to Trump 53.0% https://t.co/ELoEFSSkaJ
  • 10:45:52 Poll Added: CVoter in SD from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 41.8% to Trump 54.1% https://t.co/i1kdH4oIJD
  • 10:46:12 Clinton vs Trump state category change: SD has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/i1kdH4oIJD
  • 10:47:35 Poll Added: CVoter in TN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 39.2% to Trump 55.9% https://t.co/HBEyfa23gG
  • 10:49:16 Poll Added: CVoter in TX from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 41.4% to Trump 53.4% https://t.co/YMttQ0Iy6G
  • 10:51:20 Poll Added: CVoter in UT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 29.4% to Trump 65.2% https://t.co/IEOsPho5Kr
  • 10:51:36 Clinton vs Trump state category change: UT has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/IEOsPh6uST
  • 10:53:06 Poll Added: CVoter in VT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 63.1% to Trump 32.8% https://t.co/EppjLAK9yn
  • 10:54:48 Poll Added: CVoter in VA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 49.8% to Trump 45.8% https://t.co/bpJklYs1RY
  • 10:56:29 Poll Added: CVoter in WA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 53.6% to Trump 42.1% https://t.co/0hbzqwOUKs
  • 10:58:05 Poll Added: CVoter in DC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 80.9% to Trump 13.1% https://t.co/DRdPbDXe1S
  • 10:59:38 Poll Added: CVoter in WV from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 36.4% to Trump 58.1% https://t.co/EzfMtyHEBk
  • 11:01:17 Poll Added: CVoter in WI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 51.1% to Trump 45.5% https://t.co/aKEwD7aAT6
  • 11:03:09 Poll Added: CVoter in WY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-16 – Clinton 30.2% to Trump 64.3% https://t.co/Icu7gByowx
  • 15:32:47 Poll Added: Castleton in VT from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 45% to Trump 17% https://t.co/ObIfK67y7J
  • 15:37:09 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-10-14 to 2016-10-17 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% https://t.co/SXoFp4hVk6
  • 15:37:14 Full 3P results: SurveyUSA w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-10-14 to 2016-10-17 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% to Johnson 6%
  • 15:38:17 Poll Added: SurveyUSA [2] in NC from 2016-10-14 to 2016-10-17 – Clinton 48% to Trump 46% https://t.co/JBs00MwrE4
  • 15:42:54 Poll Added: Morrison w/4P in AZ from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 39.0% to Trump 33.9% https://t.co/gy3x67rY1o
  • 15:42:59 Full 4P results: Morrison w/4P in AZ from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 39.0% to Trump 33.9% to Johnson 5.9% to Stein 0.5%
  • 15:46:17 Poll Added: Siena w/4P in NY from 2016-10-13 to 2016-10-17 – Clinton 54% to Trump 30% https://t.co/4GkCuqMjNs
  • 15:46:23 Full 4P results: Siena w/4P in NY from 2016-10-13 to 2016-10-17 – Clinton 54% to Trump 30% to Johnson 5% to Stein 4%
  • 16:38:51 Poll Added: Riley w/4P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 46% to Trump 36% https://t.co/NgxJcrgeM2
  • 16:38:57 Full 4P results: Riley w/4P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-14 – Clinton 46% to Trump 36% to Johnson 5% to Stein 5%
  • 16:45:22 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/4P in KS from 2016-10-11 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 36% to Trump 47% https://t.co/ZeAPyvEP4U
  • 16:45:27 Full 4P results: SurveyUSA w/4P in KS from 2016-10-11 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 36% to Trump 47% to % to %
  • 16:50:36 Poll Added: Dan Jones w/4P in ID from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30% to Trump 40% https://t.co/kxiqhNKYLF
  • 16:50:41 Full 4P results: Dan Jones w/4P in ID from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30% to Trump 40% to % to %
  • 17:28:44 Round of poll entry complete. Polls in all 50 states. Notable changes in OH/AZ/IN/KS/PA & the tipping point, so @ElectionGraphs post later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-19 (UTC)