This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Topping the First One

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner… what else? Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. After a short bit on Hurricane Matthew, we dive into Trump’s taxes, then the Veep debate. We had originally ended the show there, but after the big Trump news Friday, we came back and recorded a bonus segment on the 2005 tape and the beginnings of the aftermath. The situation is still unfolding, but we had to stop and actually get the show out!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-10-07
Length this week – 2:06:16

  • (0:01:26-0:21:11) But First
    • Agenda
    • Curmudgeon’s Corner Mug
    • Hurricane Matthew
  • (0:22:15-0:54:38) Trump Taxes
    • Background
    • How did he lose the billion?
    • Lying Trump
    • Political impact
    • Sam’s polling frustrations
    • Polling update
    • Undecided and 3P votes
  • (0:55:42-1:24:36) Veep Debate and More
    • The debate was boring
    • Kaine’s annoying interruptions
    • Pence pretends Trump doesn’t exist
    • Pence 2020?
    • Hidden voters?
    • Impact of the VP debate
    • The next debate
    • Bringing up Bill?
    • False Goodbye
  • (1:24:50-2:06:16) Bonus Segment!
    • Trump tape
    • Who is surprised?
    • Crude comments
    • Juana scolds Ivan
    • How much does this hurt Trump?
    • Clinton speech transcripts
    • Trump meltdown coming?
    • Republican damage control
    • Straight party ticket
    • 3rd party voters
    • Defections begin
    • Too late to dump Trump?
    • Long term damage from 2016
    • False goodbye 2
    • Final update

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Electoral College: Trump’s Polling Meltdown

States with new poll data added since the last update: All of them. Multiple times. There are additional new polls since I had to cut things off for this update as well. Those will be in the next update.

National Summary

The last week of polls has been devastating to Trump’s position. In the last update we were just starting to see the reaction from the first debate. With this batch the post-debate polling continued to roll in, and while there were a couple of minor moves toward Trump, the net change in this update was a dramatic move toward Clinton:

  • The expected result moved from Clinton by 6 electoral votes to Clinton by 154 electoral votes
  • The tipping point moved from Clinton by 2.1% in CO to Clinton by 4.5% in MI
  • Trump’s best case moved from a 60 EV win to a 26 EV win
  • Clinton’s best case moved from a 208 EV win to a 196 EV win

Looking at the charts:

chart-321

The previous update mentioned some Trump losses starting a week or two before the debate. With a lot more polls filling in the time period right before the debate as well as right after, it now looks like those losses were reversed before the debate.

In the time after the debate though, all three indicators on the chart have moved in Clinton’s direction. The race is now essentially back to where it was at the beginning of September. We’re not yet back at Clinton’s high point from August, but it is getting close.

chart-322

The tipping point chart is even more stark. As with the electoral college view, it looks like Trump’s mid-September declines were reversed by debate time, but after the debate everything falls off a cliff. Most of Trump’s gains from August and September are gone. Right before the debate he topped out with Clinton only ahead in the tipping point metric by 0.4%.

Clinton now leads by 4.5%. The tipping point state is Michigan. Clinton only has to increase her lead slightly there to not just take Michigan out of reach for Trump, but the Presidency.

What we are seeing in the polling results right now at this point probably fully factors in the debate itself. But we are just starting to see the impact from Trump’s “worst week in presidential campaign history ” that started with the debate, continued with his attacks on Alicia Machado, and ended with the leak of some of his tax information. The events of that week are not yet fully baked in.

And of course, the polls do not yet reflect the VP debate, or more importantly, the 2005 Trump video that was leaked on Friday. It is hard to imagine the events of the last few days NOT having an impact on the polls.

And the next debate is coming up. It should be interesting. If you were not planning on tuning in before, change your plans.

31.7 days left until the first actual election results start coming in.

State Details

A lot of states moved in order to produce the summary results above. For those interested in looking at the state by state details, they are below:

Weak Trump to Weak Clinton

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chart-326

chart-327

chart-325

chart-323

Moving out of reach for Trump

chart-330

chart-328

chart-329

Moving out of reach for Clinton

chart-331

Moving into reach for Trump

chart-332

States that changed categories but then moved right back again

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For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-07 (UTC)

  • 01:12:14 Retweeted @suz_hol 01:11:33 @ElecCollPolls is this a real poll number? in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 01:13:31 .@suz_hol Yes. But it is Google. Lots of outliers in many states. Look at overall picture rather than the one poll: https://t.co/dE5wFPMoVu in reply to suz_hol
  • 04:32:24 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 31.87% to Trump 36.58% https://t.co/yh6EQOsDUS
  • 04:32:29 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 31.87% to Trump 36.58% to Johnson 6.88%
  • 04:36:14 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 46.18% to Trump 21.23% https://t.co/S4hmDFQLu7
  • 04:36:19 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 46.18% to Trump 21.23% to Johnson 8.61%
  • 04:36:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NH has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/S4hmDFQLu7
  • 05:01:24 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 219 to Trump 319 -> Clinton 223 to Trump 315 https://t.co/GQZHanehWR
  • 05:33:34 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 41.69% to Trump 32.62% https://t.co/pTAXUpzp0Q
  • 05:33:39 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 41.69% to Trump 32.62% to Johnson 4.98%
  • 05:33:54 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NJ has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/pTAXUpzp0Q
  • 05:36:59 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43.05% to Trump 22.73% https://t.co/0hK3B4qQZS
  • 05:37:04 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43.05% to Trump 22.73% to Johnson 11.60%
  • 05:37:20 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NM has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/0hK3B4qQZS
  • 05:40:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 35.20% to Trump 33.06% https://t.co/Vv75s4hCNm
  • 05:40:08 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 35.20% to Trump 33.06% to Johnson 12.95%
  • 06:08:27 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43.02% to Trump 31.27% https://t.co/vlWQzXgXCb
  • 06:08:32 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43.02% to Trump 31.27% to Johnson 4.69%
  • 06:10:35 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 36.04% to Trump 33.55% https://t.co/oeOLq5fbcx
  • 06:10:40 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 36.04% to Trump 33.55% to Johnson 6.43%
  • 06:14:31 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 28.99% to Trump 39.64% https://t.co/LnjoDu2jsn
  • 06:14:36 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 28.99% to Trump 39.64% to Johnson 10.83%
  • 06:17:34 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 48.01% to Trump 26.47% https://t.co/OPYrtIhinN
  • 06:17:39 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 48.01% to Trump 26.47% to Johnson 5.24%
  • 06:20:00 Poll Added: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 37.40% to Trump 37.06% https://t.co/k3QzGGN8Ao
  • 06:20:05 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 37.40% to Trump 37.06% to Johnson 6.39%
  • 06:36:43 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 1.8% in PA -> Clinton by 2% in PA https://t.co/DDj5GRQPBr
  • 15:07:59 Poll Added: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 44.76% to Trump 28.48% https://t.co/GI34aUN0y4
  • 15:08:04 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 44.76% to Trump 28.48% to Johnson 4.40%
  • 15:10:27 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 29.83% to Trump 40.78% https://t.co/w0n9teloKF
  • 15:10:32 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 29.83% to Trump 40.78% to Johnson 7.62%
  • 15:14:50 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 36.16% to Trump 37.36% https://t.co/zGPw60L6ql
  • 15:14:55 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 36.16% to Trump 37.36% to Johnson 2.74%
  • 15:18:53 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 31.62% to Trump 42.73% https://t.co/269VA28cLj
  • 15:18:59 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 31.62% to Trump 42.73% to Johnson 6.66%
  • 15:24:57 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 33.42% to Trump 40.37% https://t.co/VCNJenXkg4
  • 15:25:02 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 33.42% to Trump 40.37% to Johnson 8.06%
  • 15:27:08 Poll Added: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 28.64% to Trump 34.24% https://t.co/MhwiWPHXOs
  • 15:27:12 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 28.64% to Trump 34.24% to Johnson 14.51%
  • 15:29:15 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 40.86% to Trump 27.00% https://t.co/Shl5LOFZum
  • 15:29:20 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 40.86% to Trump 27.00% to Johnson 7.23%
  • 15:29:34 Clinton vs Trump state category change: VA has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/Shl5LOFZum
  • 15:52:14 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 223 to Trump 315 -> Clinton 236 to Trump 302 https://t.co/xwsXkUsOYI
  • 16:01:27 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 44.43% to Trump 27.34% https://t.co/8TSACwm1ZI
  • 16:01:32 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 44.43% to Trump 27.34% to Johnson 6.65%
  • 16:04:30 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 45.41% to Trump 24.67% https://t.co/XnrW1Px1fr
  • 16:04:35 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 45.41% to Trump 24.67% to Johnson 8.26%
  • 16:40:17 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43.01% to Trump 27.71% https://t.co/EPZHKBuMdd
  • 16:40:22 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43.01% to Trump 27.71% to Johnson 8.40%
  • 16:43:04 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 24.42% to Trump 48.57% https://t.co/LxBa9a26RW
  • 16:43:09 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 24.42% to Trump 48.57% to Johnson 6.88%
  • 16:46:29 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 18.80% to Trump 35.07% https://t.co/AvaZG1BoWw
  • 16:46:34 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 18.80% to Trump 35.07% to Johnson 9.70%
  • 16:57:16 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in FL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 44.2% to Trump 45.4% https://t.co/nv28wuXNMT
  • 16:57:21 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in FL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 44.2% to Trump 45.4% to Johnson 4.0% to Stein 2.6%
  • 17:00:04 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in NV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 42.8% https://t.co/20P5LD3eRK
  • 17:00:09 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in NV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 42.8% to Johnson 8.5% to Stein 4.3%
  • 17:02:32 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in AZ from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 43.8% to Trump 41.9% https://t.co/SjbowIqxEV
  • 17:02:37 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in AZ from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 43.8% to Trump 41.9% to Johnson 9.3% to Stein 0.9%
  • 17:05:33 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in RI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 51.8% to Trump 32.3% https://t.co/biEwQgPljx
  • 17:05:38 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in RI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 51.8% to Trump 32.3% to Johnson 5.3% to Stein 4.9%
  • 17:10:25 Poll Added: ALG w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 43% to Trump 41% https://t.co/0WtEUxAXnz
  • 17:10:30 Full 4P results: ALG w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 43% to Trump 41% to Johnson 7% to Stein 1%
  • 17:11:56 Poll Added: ALG w/Lean w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/Rew55Z8yfU
  • 17:12:02 Full 4P results: ALG w/Lean w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% to Johnson 8% to Stein 1%
  • 17:14:00 Poll Added: ALG [4] in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 45% to Trump 42% https://t.co/RK73ChWiS7
  • 17:15:21 Poll Added: ALG w/Lean [4] in OH from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% https://t.co/ywNyAzNi62
  • 17:15:35 Clinton vs Trump state category change: OH has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/ywNyAzNi62
  • 17:41:42 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 313 to Trump 225 -> Clinton 331 to Trump 207 https://t.co/zb7zwqQU6q
  • 17:48:09 Poll Added: Dixie w/4P in TX from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-01 – Clinton 37.95% to Trump 44.87% https://t.co/ExGbBJHEjR
  • 17:48:14 Full 4P results: Dixie w/4P in TX from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-01 – Clinton 37.95% to Trump 44.87% to Johnson 4.23% to Stein 0.90%
  • 17:53:40 Poll Added: Normington Petts in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 44% to Trump 40% https://t.co/dClkIhczfK
  • 17:56:27 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/4P in NM from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 46% to Trump 33% https://t.co/iKApjc6yet
  • 17:56:32 Full 4P results: SurveyUSA w/4P in NM from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 46% to Trump 33% to Johnson 14% to Stein 2%
  • 18:01:04 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in OH from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/utR9AdUtuV
  • 18:01:09 Full 4P results: Monmouth w/4P in OH from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% to Johnson 5% to Stein 1%
  • 18:07:02 Poll Added: Normington Petts in ME-CD2 from 2016-09-21 to 2016-09-22 – Clinton 40% to Trump 44% https://t.co/7Dm67D8pWr
  • 18:20:21 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/3P in NC from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% https://t.co/FUPHhauK2Q
  • 18:20:26 Full 3P results: SurveyUSA w/3P in NC from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% to Johnson 5%
  • 18:27:47 Poll Added: Hart w/3P [2] in NV from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 41% https://t.co/hO8izXNlmE
  • 18:27:52 Full 3P results: Hart w/3P [2] in NV from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 41% to Johnson 8%
  • 18:29:15 Poll Added: Hart [2] in NV from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 47% to Trump 44% https://t.co/mTzynooYdQ
  • 18:41:18 Poll Added: SIU w/4P [2] in IL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 50.5% to Trump 27.1% https://t.co/Vb3gUf3Er3
  • 18:41:23 Full 4P results: SIU w/4P [2] in IL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 50.5% to Trump 27.1% to Johnson 3.6% to Stein 1.2%
  • 18:42:41 Poll Added: SIU w/Lean w/4P [2] in IL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 53.2% to Trump 28.4% https://t.co/csmDotE6b7
  • 18:42:46 Full 4P results: SIU w/Lean w/4P [2] in IL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 53.2% to Trump 28.4% to Johnson 4.7% to Stein 1.5%
  • 18:46:54 Poll Added: MTSU w/4P [3] in TN from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 36% to Trump 48% https://t.co/OStmBLp4vz
  • 18:46:59 Full 4P results: MTSU w/4P [3] in TN from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 36% to Trump 48% to Johnson 5% to Stein 1%
  • 18:48:28 Poll Added: MTSU w/Lean w/4P [3] in TN from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 38% to Trump 50% https://t.co/66zwCJkpLx
  • 18:48:33 Full 4P results: MTSU w/Lean w/4P [3] in TN from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 38% to Trump 50% to Johnson 5% to Stein 1%
  • 18:49:29 Poll Added: MTSU [3] in TN from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 40% to Trump 50% https://t.co/L48HnSPOvU
  • 19:00:29 Poll Added: F&M LV w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 47% to Trump 38% https://t.co/WHvECa0yxC
  • 19:00:34 Full 4P results: F&M LV w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 47% to Trump 38% to Johnson 5% to Stein 0%
  • 19:02:25 Poll Added: F&M RV [3] in PA from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 48% to Trump 36% https://t.co/feADr7h4Od
  • 19:03:42 Poll Added: F&M RV w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 47% to Trump 35% https://t.co/PDHuYvD5dE
  • 19:03:47 Full 4P results: F&M RV w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 47% to Trump 35% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
  • 19:17:04 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 2% in PA -> Clinton by 4.5% in MI https://t.co/TjGlRzXtl5
  • 19:27:21 Poll Added: Elon w/3P in NC from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 44.5% to Trump 39% https://t.co/7mQgackoPE
  • 19:27:26 Full 3P results: Elon w/3P in NC from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 44.5% to Trump 39% to Johnson 9%
  • 19:27:39 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NC has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/7mQgacC0ee
  • 19:47:35 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 331 to Trump 207 -> Clinton 346 to Trump 192 https://t.co/j0JOjmv6mK

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-07 (UTC)