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Electoral College: Alaska in play?

States with new poll data added since the last update: Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Alaska

Notable changes in: Alaska

National Summary

Only one change this time, but it it continues to be movement toward Clinton. The most recent polls included here now ended Friday, but it is unclear how much, if any, they were impacted by the 2005 Trump tape, since that happened later in the day on Friday.

  • Clinton best case moves from a 196 electoral vote win to a 202 electoral vote win

The chart:

chart-336

Clinton’s best case has been improving slowly since mid-September. She has a bit to go before she matches her peak in August, but if the current trends continue, we may see that again within a week or so as the impacts from the 2005 Trump tape and the second debate start to be visible in the state polls.

9.3 days until the next debate. 29.3 days until we start getting actual election results. We are in the final stretch.

State Details

Moving into play for Clinton

chart-337

Alaska has been moving away from Trump for the last couple of weeks. With the latest additions, Trump is now up by only 4.2%. So it moves into the “Weak Trump” category.

Now, big caveat here… This is heavily influenced by a Google poll showing Clinton up by 10.8%. Google has had strange outliers in many states this cycle, and this may well be one of them. So it is quite possible this won’t last as additional new polls come in. Without Google, Trump’s lead would still be at 9.1%.

Having said that, there have been two non-Google polls since the first debate. If you only average those, you have a 3.8% Trump lead. Still in “Weak Trump” territory. So saying Alaska is looking much closer than it did is probably still quite fair.

In any case, we have a policy of including just about everything, so the Google polls count, and so Alaska is at Trump +4.2% now, which is a narrow enough lead that the state is now a possible Clinton pick up.

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-09 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-09 (UTC)

  • 01:10:11 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% https://t.co/8pMsM47kIB
  • 01:10:16 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% to Johnson 4% to Stein 1%
  • 01:12:55 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in FL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 45% https://t.co/EwDyLeChFT
  • 01:12:59 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in FL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 45% to Johnson 2% to Stein 1%
  • 01:13:11 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/EwDyLeChFT
  • 01:26:00 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 346 to Trump 192 -> Clinton 317 to Trump 221 https://t.co/9XMpuasOg8
  • 01:40:47 Poll Added: PPP w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% https://t.co/FJtm7nVH1x
  • 01:40:52 Full 4P results: PPP w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
  • 01:42:11 Poll Added: PPP [2] in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 48% to Trump 47% https://t.co/7wEvzifRKC
  • 01:47:49 Poll Added: Howey w/3P in IN from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 38% to Trump 43% https://t.co/jS6vVxFeAF
  • 01:47:54 Full 3P results: Howey w/3P in IN from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 38% to Trump 43% to Johnson 11%
  • 01:50:53 Poll Added: UNF [2] in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 40% https://t.co/CkwJNhq0V2
  • 01:51:05 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/CkwJNhq0V2
  • 01:52:52 Poll Added: UNF w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% https://t.co/CG6IHArWwD
  • 01:52:57 Full 4P results: UNF w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% to Johnson 6% to Stein 3%
  • 02:13:43 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 317 to Trump 221 -> Clinton 346 to Trump 192 https://t.co/r9bdCjeqD0
  • 02:16:13 Retweeted @ViviVacca 02:15:51 @ElecCollPolls you mean from weak Trump to weak Clinton in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 02:17:33 .@ViviVacca I added two polls to my data tonight. The first one moved FL from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump. The second one moved it back. in reply to ViviVacca
  • 02:29:55 Poll Added: Suffolk w/4P in NH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 43.80% to Trump 42.00% https://t.co/mjCAUXaiij
  • 02:30:00 Full 4P results: Suffolk w/4P in NH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 43.80% to Trump 42.00% to Johnson 5.20% to Stein 0.80%
  • 02:44:35 Poll Added: DMR w/4P in IA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 39% to Trump 43% https://t.co/tYSPMHKyYh
  • 02:44:40 Full 4P results: DMR w/4P in IA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 39% to Trump 43% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 02:49:02 Poll Added: Hampton in VA from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 46% to Trump 34% https://t.co/wciOaW3gkq
  • 02:53:21 Poll Added: Gravis in CO from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 40% to Trump 40% https://t.co/1R3ETDFZcx
  • 02:57:39 Poll Added: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 31% to Trump 39% https://t.co/PaiWY1usWH
  • 02:57:44 Full 4P results: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 31% to Trump 39% to Johnson 9% to Stein 4%
  • 02:59:13 Poll Added: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 34% to Trump 37% https://t.co/K8BPf1aZQt
  • 02:59:18 Full 4P results: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 34% to Trump 37% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 03:05:09 Poll Added: Strategies360 [2] in WA from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 50% to Trump 33% https://t.co/nvlUPUI2AL
  • 03:06:45 Poll Added: Strategies360 w/4P [2] in WA from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 47% to Trump 31% https://t.co/mtZoiuYG4X
  • 03:06:50 Full 4P results: Strategies360 w/4P [2] in WA from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 47% to Trump 31% to Johnson 10% to Stein 4%
  • 03:12:40 Poll Added: EPIC-MRA [2] in MI from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 36% https://t.co/nALhgAHXGp
  • 03:14:15 Poll Added: EPIC-MRA w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43% to Trump 32% https://t.co/AVZhXZZK2c
  • 03:14:20 Full 4P results: EPIC-MRA w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43% to Trump 32% to Johnson 10% to Stein 3%
  • 03:14:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/AVZhXZZK2c
  • 03:21:09 Retweeted @V3CK3R 03:20:43 @ElecCollPolls just clarify, these polls are indications of the situation before this newest Trump meltdown? in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 03:23:04 .@V3CK3R I’m in the middle of a round of adding polls but at the moment the most recent polls I have ended Thursday. https://t.co/bQXcR7BIif in reply to V3CK3R
  • 03:26:37 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 4.5% in MI -> Clinton by 5.9% in MN https://t.co/j8x3JfsLn2
  • 03:26:37 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 256 to Trump 282 -> Clinton 272 to Trump 266 https://t.co/j8x3JfsLn2
  • 03:42:50 Poll Added: Predictive Insights w/4P in AZ from 2016-09-28 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 42% to Trump 42% https://t.co/4TXiEiarwL
  • 03:42:55 Full 4P results: Predictive Insights w/4P in AZ from 2016-09-28 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 42% to Trump 42% to Johnson 5% to Stein 1%
  • 03:43:08 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AZ has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/4TXiEiarwL
  • 03:56:19 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 346 to Trump 192 -> Clinton 357 to Trump 181 https://t.co/onKlLySUOZ
  • 05:42:03 Poll Added: Vanderbilt w/4P in TN from 2016-09-19 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 33% to Trump 44% https://t.co/SETouhn8mY
  • 05:42:08 Full 4P results: Vanderbilt w/4P in TN from 2016-09-19 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 33% to Trump 44% to Johnson 7% to Stein 1%
  • 05:46:10 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P in MD from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 63% to Trump 27% https://t.co/MKdN2xRnjj
  • 05:46:14 Full 4P results: WaPo w/4P in MD from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 63% to Trump 27% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
  • 05:50:24 Poll Added: WNEU w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 58% to Trump 26% https://t.co/Qo8CP4nSux
  • 05:50:29 Full 4P results: WNEU w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 58% to Trump 26% to Johnson 7% to Stein 4%
  • 05:51:55 Poll Added: WNEU [2] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 65% to Trump 30% https://t.co/RHYqMF0liX
  • 06:05:45 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 39% https://t.co/u7BnwunLQR
  • 06:05:50 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 39% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
  • 06:26:47 Poll Added: TargetSmart w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42% to Trump 39% https://t.co/X43wmRMLnW
  • 06:26:52 Full 4P results: TargetSmart w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42% to Trump 39% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
  • 06:28:23 Poll Added: TargetSmart w/Lean w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 43% to Trump 40% https://t.co/AUrDAkm5uk
  • 06:28:28 Full 4P results: TargetSmart w/Lean w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 43% to Trump 40% to Johnson 8% to Stein 2%
  • 06:30:05 Poll Added: TargetSmart [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/SyGneMnjOL
  • 06:31:37 Poll Added: TargetSmart w/Lean [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 46% to Trump 43% https://t.co/sJriuIpJJf
  • 06:39:18 Poll Added: GSG w/4P in IL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 50.0% to Trump 33.0% https://t.co/WD077P6Szs
  • 06:39:23 Full 4P results: GSG w/4P in IL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 50.0% to Trump 33.0% to Johnson 6.0% to Stein 2.0%
  • 08:59:54 Round of polls complete. New data: WI/FL/OH/IN/NH/IA/VA/CO/AK/WA/MI/AZ/TN/MD/MA/OR/IL. Notable changes in MI/AZ. @ElectionGraphs post later.
  • 18:35:29 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:35:17 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump Path to Victory Evaporates https://t.co/Dl5Z1ackzB

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-09 (UTC)