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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Texas pushes Romney over the Top

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

This is what we have been waiting for seemingly forever.  By the beginning of March it was clear that no other candidate than Romney had the ability to get to 1144 absent a miracle.  By the beginning of April it was clear that the non-Romney’s also were not going to be able to collectively block Romney absent a miracle.  But Romney still needed to actually get to 1144.  Slowly but surely he did so through April and May.  Today he finally goes over the top.  (At least with the count I use, which uses the Green Papers soft count plus the DCW Superdelegate Count.  Other counts may differ.)

Since this is “the end” lets include a couple of additional graphs with two other views of the race:

All of these charts show how Romney completely dominated this race from the very beginning.  There was NEVER a point in the entire campaign where Romney was not ahead in delegates.  It was only even close for a few days after Gingrich won South Carolina. The rest of the time, this whole campaign has just been a story of Romney slowly but surely pulling further and further ahead.

Now lets look specifically at today’s results from Texas.

Prior to today, none of Texas’s 155 delegates had been allocated.  As of this update we have Romney 105, Paul 18, Santorum 13, Gingrich 7, Bachmann 2, TBD 10.  Yes, that is right, at this late state, Michelle Bachmann mounts a comeback it seems.  In any case, an overwhelming Romney win.

Romney also picked up two super delegates from Colorado today.

So net for the day:  Romney +107, Paul +18, Santorum +13, Gingrich +7, Bachmann +2.  Romney gets 72.8% of the delegates awarded today.  This is way more than the 12.9% of the remaining delegates he needed to be on track to get to 1144 before “the end”.  This was actually enough to push him over the edge.

My count now has the totals as:  Romney 1159, Santorum 268, Gingrich 150, Paul 143, Bachmann 2

Now, by the Green Papers “hard count” that only counts delegates that are officially bound to Romney and theoretically have no discretion or ability to change their mind, we have Romney 1012,  Santorum 245, Gingrich 143, Paul 93, Bachman 2, Huntsman 2…  so by that count Romney still has a little bit further to go. The soft count also includes estimates for how delegates with discretion will vote and for how the remaining processes that are not yet final will play out.  I also add in the super delegates who have publicly stated a preference.  This is all reasonable.  So I feel confident having using the count we have used all along, and considering Romney to have gotten to the 1144 magic number as of today.

Since we are hitting this major milestone today, I’ll take advantage of this time to highlight the comparisons with the 2008 races.  More comparisons with 2008 can be found here.

First, to make comparisons easier, the 2012 race on a full 0%-100% scale:

Then what the equivalent graph looked like in 2008:

Looking at these two, in 2008 McCain had two non-trivial opponents compared to the 3 Romney had this time.  In 2008, McCain pulled away from the other candidates starting around the 10% mark.  In 2012 Romney was ahead from the very beginning.  By the the 5% of delegates awarded mark (after Florida), Romney opened up the gap and none of the others ever came close again.  Both Romney and McCain got to the “40% of remaining needed to win” mark at almost exactly the point where 50% of the delegates had been awarded.  These two years look pretty similar.

Another view comparing Romney 2012 to McCain 2008 looks at % of total delegates earned by the eventual winner vs % of total delegates allocated.  This was originally prompted by a post at Enik Rising.  Looking at both candidates on the same chart we see this:

Despite all the talk at various points in time about Romney having problems closing the deal by comparison to 2008, this shows clearly that no such thing was happening.  Any perception to that effect was due only to the fact that the calendar was more spread out this year than in 2008.  Comparing the two curves, sometimes Romney was ahead, sometimes McCain was ahead, but for the most part these two lines tracked each other closely.

Finally, just for completeness, here is what an actually close race looks like on the “% of remaining delegates needed to win” chart…  specifically, the Democrats in 2008:

With that, we wrap up the regular coverage of the Republican delegate race for 2012.  There may be additional updates for specific milestones…  if Paul manages to pass Gingrich in the delegate count…  the final totals once all the state delegate selection processes are actually over…  or the final roll call count at the convention…  but as for regular updates this is it.

Thanks for everybody who has been reading and enjoying these updates over the last five months.

From here on out, it is all about the Electoral College

Edit 2012 Jun 5 12:49 UTC:  Fixed affect/effect typo.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Arkansas, Kentucky and an update from Minnesota

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Updates for three states today.

First of all, Minnesota.  The state convention was Friday and Saturday, but our source The Green Papers didn’t update their counts until a few hours after I did my daily scan of the delegate counts on Tuesday.  I did my scan at 02:41 UTC yesterday, GP updated their counts sometime between then and 07:00 UTC. If I’d done my scan a little later as I sometimes do, this would have been its own update yesterday, but I didn’t, so it gets included in today’s update instead.

Regardless, based on the results of the state conventions, the estimates for Minnesota change.  Previously, the estimates were Paul 24, Santorum 8, Romney 2, Gingrich 2, TBD 4.  Now, after the convention: Paul 32, Santorum 2, Gingrich 1, TBD 5.  Notice Romney now has no delegates in Minnesota at all.  Wow.  (Although some of the TBDs may go that way when they eventually choose.)  Net for this update in Minnesota:  Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Romney -2, Santorum -6.  This would be great for Paul except for the fact that he is so far behind that it doesn’t matter.  But fun stuff in Minnesota none the less.

Now we get to the two states that voted in primaries on Tuesday.  Both are Romney shutouts.

Arkansas:  Romney gains 33 delegates.  New totals:  Romney 35, TBD 1

Kentucky:  Romney gains 42 delegates.  New totals:  Romney 42, TBD 3

So, the total take for the day:  Romney +73, Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Santorum -6

New overall totals by our count:  Romney 1052, Santorum 255, Gingrich 143, Paul 125.

Romney only needs 92 more delegates to win.  That is 12.9% of the remaining delegates (down from 21.0% before today’s update).

Texas is Tuesday and has more than enough delegates to push Romney over the edge.

Tuesday should be it.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Oregon Update

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Today we have some updates to yesterday’s Oregon results.

First of all, it turns out Santorum gets one more delegate than it looked like yesterday, and Gingrich gets one less.

Second, the remaining two Oregon superdelegates stated they will echo the primary results and support Romney.

New summary for Oregon:  Romney 21, Santorum 3, Paul 3, Gingrich 1

So net for the day:  Romney +2, Santorum +1, Gingrich -1

So Romney’s % of remaining needed to win drops from 21.4% to 21.2%.

He needs 167 more delegates to get to the 1144 magic number by my estimate.

(My estimate uses the Green Papers Soft Count plus the DCW Superdelegate Count).

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Oregon

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Today we have results from Oregon.  Prior to today we had one superdelegate in Oregon for Romney and 27 TBD.  We now have Romney 19, Paul 3, Santorum 2, Gingrich 2, TBD 2.  So for the day Romney +18, Paul +3, Santorum +2, Gingrich +2.

Romney got 72.0% of today’s delegates, way more than the 23.0% he needed in order to be on track to clinch the nomination.  So the march goes on.

Overall totals at this point:  Romney 975, Santorum 260, Gingrich 145, Paul 117, TBD 789

I should also mention that a couple days ago Paul announced he would not be campaigning in the remaining primary states.  Contrary to some of the headlines, he did not suspend his campaign like Santorum and Gingrich have.  His campaign is still actively working the delegate process in the states where that is possible.  He just isn’t dedicating any resources to trying to win votes in the remaining states where he has no chance of winning.  Any efforts are concentrated on the actual process of delegate selection, which has basically been his strategy all along.  Effectively though, by the nature of the memo the campaign put out, regardless of what was intended, the effect is that what little attention was still being given to him now fades away too.  Especially since he also essentially promised to “behave” at the convention and not cause trouble.

So we now just wait for Romney to finish collecting the last 169 delegates he needs to win.  Next up, Kentucky and Arkansas on the 22nd.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: West Virginia Update

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Very minor update today.  One West Virginia delegate that was thought to be a Romney delegate turns out to really still be TBD.  This makes the total in West Virginia: Romney 23, Santorum 2, TBD 6.

This in turn makes the overall total:  Romney 956, Santorum 258, Gingrich 143, Paul 114, TBD 815

Romney’s “% of remaining needed to win” moves from 23.0% to 23.1%.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: NC, IN, WV Results – Santorum Eliminated

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Yawn!  This is so past over it isn’t funny, but I’ll be doing these posts until Romney gets to 1144!

Anyway, the new delegates awarded tonight are:

  • North Carolina – Romney 36, Santorum 6, Paul 6, Gingrich 4
  • Indiana – Romney 27
  • West Virginia – Romney 22, Santorum 2

So that makes the total for today Romney 85, Santorum 8, Paul 6, Gingrich 4.

Hmm.  Wonder who won tonight?

With 82.5% of the delegates, Romney did way better than the 29.7% of the delegates he needed to continue on pace for clinching the nomination.

Meanwhile, Santorum finally reached the point where even if he got 100% of the remaining delegates he could not catch up and win.

So now there is only one.  But Romney still has to finish mopping up the delegates.

He now only needs 23.0% of the delegates that are left in order to get to 1144.  Next up is Oregon on the 15th.  Then Kentucky and Arkansas on the 22nd.  Then Texas on the 29th.  Texas will probably be the state that puts Romney over the top unless he does much worse than expected between now and then.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Maine Update

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

As I mentioned yesterday, Ron Paul had a big weekend in Maine.  Green Papers has now updated their Maine Soft Count to reflect this.  The previous estimate for Maine was: Romney 10, Paul 8, Santorum 4, Gingrich 1, TBD 1.  Paul completely dominated the process at the District Caucuses and State Convention though.  So now we have Paul 21, Romney 2, TBD 1.

That gives a net change for the day of Paul +13, Gingrich -1, Santorum -4, Romney -8

Paul is clearly the big winner for the day.  Romney is clearly the big loser.

Of course, Romney is so far ahead at this point it barely matters.

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney:  28.8% -> 29.7%
  • Santorum:  97.1% -> 97.5%

And Paul?  Well, down from 114.4% to 113.0%.  Still way above 100%.  Not in contention here.

Of course, for Paul this isn’t about winning the nomination.  He is getting down in the dirt in the state processes.  He is winning a number of delegates, and Maine marks the second state (along with Minnesota) where he now has the plurality of delegates in Green Paper’s soft count (and he is tied in Iowa as well).  In addition, he is collecting delegates in other states that while officially bound on the first ballot for Romney, are actually Paul supporters.  Even though they can’t vote for Paul on the first ballot, these folks could cause procedural trouble at the convention if Paul wants them too.

Completely aside from Convention delegates though, Paul is using the process here to build an organization and to start electing “his people” to positions in the local and state party structure.  In states like Maine, Minnesota and Iowa, Paul supporters are in the process of taking over the state Republican Parties.  This will not matter in 2012, but it means they will have a bigger role in defining how the process will work in 2016 and 2020.  Ron Paul is probably on his last presidential run, but the structure he leaves behind will be ready for Rand Paul (or some other Libertarian leaning candidate) next time around.

Winning the nomination was never what Paul was about.  Working to put the machine in place to gradually, over many years, bend the Republican Party in his direction…  that’s Ron Paul’s game.  I don’t know if in the long run it will succeed, but that is what is going on here, not an attempt to keep fighting and win the nomination long after it was clear that would never happen.

 

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Nevada Update and Some Supers

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

You may have heard reports of a big Ron Paul win in Nevada this weekend.  Ron Paul supporters win 22 of the 25 delegate spots in Nevada and all that.  Well, yes.  True.  However, in Nevada the delegates are still bound on the first ballot at the convention to vote proportionately to the caucus results, and the delegates can be removed and replaced if they attempt to do something different.  So the slate of delegates elected in Nevada doesn’t actually change the delegate counts.  Something else does however.  According to Green Papers the delegates will be awarded proportionally between the candidates still actively in the race, so by suspending their campaigns Santorum and Gingrich lose their delegates and those delegates get reallocated.  So the previous estimated allocation in Nevada had been:  Romney 14, Gingrich 6, Paul 5, Santorum 3.  This now becomes: Romney 20, Paul 8.  So net from Nevada for today:  Romney +6, Paul +3, Santorum -3, Gingrich -6.

Meanwhile, Romney picks up two more supers, one from Alabama and one from Arkansas.

So for the day:  Romney +8, Paul +3, Santorum -3, Gingrich -6.  So of course Romney continues to walk toward the nomination, despite some delegate gains for Paul as well.

Wait, but what about Maine?  Paul won there over the weekend too, right?  Yes.  It looks that way.  But Green Papers hasn’t updated their “soft count” for Maine yet.  I’m sure they will soon.  When they do, we’ll update here too.

In any case, for now, in terms of “% of remaining needed to win”:

  • Romney:  29.6% -> 28.8%
  • Santorum:  96.5% -> 97.1%

Despite winning some delegates, Paul’s “% of remaining needed to win” remains significantly higher than 100% at 114.4%.  The delegates he is accumulating right now are not anywhere near enough to catch up and win…  or even to block Romney in combination with Santorum and Gingrich delegates.  Sorry.  They may let him cause the convention not to go quite the way the Romney folks would like due to some unscripted deviations from the plan, but it won’t be anywhere near what would be needed to actually derail Romney.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Unsuper Tuesday – Paul and Gingrich Eliminated

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

First big primary day in awhile, and of course Romney dominates.

  • New York:  Romney gets all 92 delegates from today.  Total in NY now Romney 94, Gingrich 1
  • Pennsylvania:  This is the only tricky one of the day.  Delegates were elected by name, not by presidential preference.  So they are all officially uncommitted, but in general these delegates do support someone, it just takes more work to figure out who.  Green Papers’ initial estimate from the primary is Romney +11, Paul +5, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3, and 39 uncommitted or unknown.  That is obviously a lot of uncommitted/unknown, so there will probably be future updates as the preferences of those delegates become known.  Also 10 at-large delegates won’t be chosen until June and two superdelegates have yet to publicly express a preference.  The total in PA is now Romney 12, Paul 5, Gingrich 4, Santorum 3, TBD 48.  (GP has Romney 11, TBD 49, but I think they forgot the one Romney superdelegate.)
  • Connecticut:  Romney wins all 25 delegates from the primary.  New CT total:  Romney 26, TBD 2
  • Rhode Island:  Romney gets 12 delegates from the primary, Paul gets 4.  New RI Total:  Romney 15, Paul 4
  • Delaware:  Romney gets all 17 delegates from the primary.  No delegates had been allocated previously and none are left, so total is just Romney 17

So, for the day…  Romney +157, Paul +9, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3.  Romney gets 90.8% of the delegates today.  Way more than the 40.2% he needed to stay on track to get to 1144.

And with this, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are both mathematically eliminated.  More specifically, if they were now to get 100% of the remaining delegates they would still not get to 1144.  In order to get to 1144, they would actually need to take delegates away from the other candidates, either through final results in caucus states being better for them than earlier estimates, or through actual defections.  Both are possible.  However, neither will happen in large enough numbers to change anything, absent something catastrophic that causes Romney to actually drop out.  Uh, which is highly unlikely.

For the remaining two candidates, in terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney:  40.2% -> 30.9%
  • Santorum:  80.1% -> 94.5%

So, theoretically Santorum could still catch up and win by getting 95% of the remaining delegates.  Needless to say that won’t happen.  His already long odds were made worse by suspending his campaign.

Meanwhile, neither Gingrich or Paul have suspended their campaigns.  There are indications Gingrich might do so soon despite previous vows to stay in until Tampa.  Paul has shown no signs of stopping.

The 31% of the remaining delegates Romney needs to wrap this up should be very easy for him to get.  But we still have to wait for the calendar.  So the march goes on…

Update 2012 Apr 27 12:34 UTC:

I was incorrect about the Pennsylvania count above and had misread Green Paper’s statement.  In fact the new total in Pennsylvania was indeed Romney 11, not Romney 12.  There were 10 new Romey delegates added to the count, not 11.  They did not forget the one superdelegate.  I just got twisted around thinking the 11 was a delta from the election instead of a new total, which would have left one delegate out.  But it was indeed the new new total.

This makes the total for this day Romney +156, Paul +9, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3.

That gives Romney 90.7% of the delegates for the day instead of 90.8%.

This also changes Romney’s “% needed to win” to 31.0% instead of 30.9%.  Santorum’s becomes 94.4% instead of 94.5%.

These changes are too small to be visible on the graph above, but will be reflected on future updates.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Minnesota Update… Big Win for Ron Paul

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

As I mentioned Sunday, Minnesota finished up Congressional District Conventions over the weekend.  These determine 24 of the 40 delegates for Minnesota.  (13 more will be determined at the state convention in a few weeks and the last three are superdelegates.)  Of those 24 delegates, 20 went to Ron Paul, 2 went to Santorum, and the other 2 were filled by delegates with unknown preferences.

The Green Papers estimate for Minnesota’s 40 delegates prior to these results was Santorum 17, Paul 10, Romney 6, Gingrich 5 and 2 yet to be determined.  Obviously given the CD Convention results, this estimate needed to be revised.

The way Green Papers did this was to use the CD results then allocate the 13 delegates which will be determined at the state convention according to the February caucus results.  (Then add in the one super with a known preference.)  I would have allocated by analogy to the CD results instead, but this works.

With that, the new estimate is Paul 24, Santorum 8, 2 Romney, 2 Gingrich, with 4 yet to be determined.  This makes Minnesota the first state where Paul has “won” the state…  meaning he has more delegates than anyone else according to current estimates.  (He is also currently tied in the estimates for Iowa, but may pull ahead by the time that process finishes.)

In any case, these new estimates give us a net change for the day of Paul +14, Gingrich -3, Romney -4, Santorum -9.

This is a big enough victory for the day that Paul actually improves his position in the race…  which is a pretty tall order for any non-Romney at this stage. For today anyway, Paul is on a pace to catch up and win the nomination!  Of course, most days won’t be like today.  Structurally they can’t be.  But hey…  Good day for Ron Paul!  Just a bit too little and too late to actually do much other than embarrass Romney a little.

So, in terms of “% of Remaining Needed to Win”:

  • Romney:  39.9% -> 40.2%
  • Santorum:  79.4% -> 80.1%
  • Gingrich:  89.7% -> 89.8%
  • Paul:  96.8% -> 95.3%

Next up…  actual new primaries!  New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware should all have results in my next update.  It will be interesting to see how big the non-Romney delegate haul is.  At this point, votes for non-Romneys are essentially anti-Romney protest votes and Paul die-hards.  Romney needs 40.2% of the delegates to be on pace to win.  With Santorum out and  Gingrich’s campaign in sleeper mode, this should be a fairly easy target.  If he doesn’t manage that…  he’ll still be the nominee…  but people would call out his continued failure to wrap this up.

He will almost certainly get the 40% he needs though.  Who are we kidding, this is over.