Once again surprising because of the bad time Obama has been having lately, another state moves further in his direction. In my “last five polls average” New Jersey now moves from “Leaning Obama” to “Weak Obama” as his lead in that state goes over 5%. This takes New Jersey out of the “could go either way” category and removes the possibility of winning New Jersey from McCain’s best case scenario.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 330, Obama 208
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260
You see those two “best case” scenarios? Now, admittedly, I’m still allowing DC to go either way since there have not yet been any polls for DC, and that is not realistic, but still, at the moment this race is almost completely symmetrical. This is a completely tied race at the moment.
Now, this is with McCain having a locked up nomination and a clear field, and the Democrats still locked in mortal battle, damaging each other further every day. So the dynamics of this will probably change significantly once the Democrats come together.
But for now… tied ball game.
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