This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



January 2016

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Losing the Billion

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan catch up with the developments of the last few weeks for the Presidential race. They cover all the dynamics on the Republican side, and discuss if Sanders really is a threat to Clinton on the Democratic side. In the lightning round, a round up of some other recent news… Chinese markets, Iran and Saudi Arabia, CES, Y’all Qaeda in Oregon, book and TV show reviews, and more!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

Recorded 2016-01-14

Length this week – 1:36:59

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
View Podcast in iTunes
View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
Follow the podcast on Facebook

Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:14:19) Intro
    • Agenda
    • Powerball
  • (0:15:07-0:42:25) Election 2016 – Republicans
    • Internet Slowdowns
    • Iowa Polls
    • Trump’s Cruz Birtherism
    • Likely Voter Models
    • Rapid Poll Movements
    • Kasich surge?
    • Debates
    • Candidates Dropping Out
    • Contested Convention scenarios
    • State by State Delegate Rules
  • (0:43:02-0:59:45) Election 2016 – Democrats
    • More on Republican delegate allocation in Iowa and New Hampshire
    • Clinton lead slipping
    • Why the late Sanders surge?
    • What if Clinton loses both Iowa and New Hampshire?
    • Clinton superdelegate advantage
    • Media bias toward a close race
    • Possible Clinton meltdowns
    • Trump’s position vs Clinton’s position
  • (1:00:48-1:36:39) Lightning Round
    • Book: Conversations with Myself
    • TV Series: Star Trek (TOS) [1966-1969]
    • If you disagree, you just aren’t listening
    • Iran / Saudi Arabia
    • Iran and the Navy boats
    • CES
    • Y’all Qaeda
    • Secretary Carter’s Email
    • Twitter Character Limit
    • Other things we missed

@abulsme tweets from 2016-01-15 (UTC)

  • 01:19:31 OMG -> The Official Donald Trump Jam (FOX 10 Phoenix)
  • 01:58:50 Debate time! Woo! I am multitasking, so no full fledged live tweet, but maybe occasional comments. :-)
  • 02:01:49 Retweeted @mtaibbi 02:01:39 God, this FBN intro makes me want to chug battery acid.
  • 02:06:08 This sailors in Iran thing is such a fake issue. Obama handled that completely correctly and it was a non-thing.
  • 02:08:16 Retweeted @JackTatar 02:07:59 #GOPDebate Thanks for making me realize that the Bush years were just like that Dallas episode where Bobby wakes up and it never happened
  • 02:14:16 Retweeted @billmaher 02:14:02 Christie: "If i'm president, Hillary won't get within ten miles of the white house"- great, more bridge closures
  • 02:17:24 Rubio is so much better at this than Bush. At the debate thing. Not at being President.
  • 02:18:28 Carson on the EMP thing too!
  • 02:19:31 Trump finally gets to talk.
  • 02:20:37 Trump building up the fear case again. Unfortunately, it tends to be a winning tactic.
  • 02:25:14 Retweeted @TheFix 02:25:04 Just checked: Hillary Clinton still running for president despite the fact that she is disqualified according to Rubio.
  • 02:27:56 OK, here comes the birther issue on Cruz.
  • 02:29:00 Cruz vs Trump. Woo! Cruz's statement on this very solid. Let's see how Trump responds…
  • 02:30:18 Cruz trying to do the thing with Trump what Reagan did to Carter about the age issue….
  • 02:31:40 As usual facts don't matter to Trump, but that doesn't matter, what matters is spreading the FUD. The boos were interesting though.
  • 02:33:30 FUD FUD FUD. Trump is all about fear, uncertainty and doubt. And people are falling for it. In droves.
  • 02:34:25 Nice gambit about Cruz giving Trump VP so if Trump is right and Cruz is disqualified, Trump gets the job. Funny.
  • 02:34:44 Rubio jumping in. Bleh. Can we get back to Cruz vs Trump?
  • 02:35:55 Now giving Trump the opportunity to react to Haley's state of the union response… lets see.
  • 02:36:36 "I will gladly accept the mantle of anger." – Trump
  • 02:36:47 Retweeted @CK_MacLeod 02:35:57 That's what I was referring to… it's just absurdly funny… Cruz's sense of humor underrated?
  • 02:37:05 Retweeted @davidaxelrod 02:34:22 First time anyone has handed @realDonaldTrump his hat in a debate exchange.
  • 02:38:46 Retweeted @_cingraham 02:38:33 Two debates happening right now: the real debate between Trump and Cruz, and the undercard debate between everyone else on that stage
  • 02:40:16 On the Cruz vs Trump exchange, not sure Cruz won. I think it was a draw. But that is better on a 1-on-1 exchange than anybody else so far.
  • 02:42:16 "I was mentioned too, they said 'everybody'." – Carson. Nice.
  • 02:44:59 Kasich saying they would win 50 states if Sanders was nominee. Polls so far of course don't say that. S vs Trump:
  • 02:47:46 Fair issue or not, Bill Clinton & women will be something you will be hearing about from now until November no matter who the R nominee is.
  • 02:48:26 Retweeted @dandrezner 02:48:09 Shorter Carson: America is badly divided, and the solution is to eliminate all secular progressives from the country.
  • 02:51:12 Surprise by the way that Trump's answer to the Haley question was peacemaking rather than ripping her to shreds. Guess he doesn't need to.
  • 02:55:31 Retweeted @GroverNorquist 02:52:41 Ok. We need Governor Haley to charge the stage and join the debate. She forgot to run this year.
  • 02:59:00 Dems made a mistake elevating the gun issue. Yes, polls show majority support reasonable restrictions, but it only mobilizes pro-gun folks.
  • 03:02:38 Cruz is a lot more present and dominating here than the rest… including Trump.
  • 03:04:22 Cruz's attacks on Trump increasing. Lets see Trump's response…
  • 03:05:49 Trump answer all about 9/11. Cynical, but by the very nature of it unrebuttable. Calm response, but neutralizes Cruz attack.
  • 03:06:39 Retweeted @LizMair 03:06:07 Yeah, decent comeback from Trump, but still, most GOP voters know what Cruz is getting at and probably agree some. #gopdebate
  • 03:07:28 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:00:12 Fascinated that these guys all want to run against Obama instead of Clinton or Sanders. Should someone tell Christie Obama's not running?
  • 03:07:37 Retweeted @hillrat 03:02:47 Obama ran against W & it was a great strategy.
  • 03:15:46 Question finishes. Carson: What was the question again? Good job Dr. Carson.
  • 03:18:28 Retweeted @maximlott 03:11:35 is tracking the change in candidates' odds since start of the debate: #GOPdebate
  • 03:21:16 Retweeted @dcbigjohn 03:20:52 I have many great black frie… i mean Muslim! Muslim friends! — trump
  • 03:21:44 Retweeted @GoldyHA 03:21:37 "We can't be the stupid country anymore," SAYS DONALD TRUMP!!!!!!!! #GOPDebate
  • 03:22:10 Bush right on substance in his rebuttal to Trump. Too bad that doesn’t matter.
  • 03:25:01 Trump hitting lots of notes here that will resonate with his voters and more. And he is loud when he says it. That’s all you need I guess.
  • 03:30:15 “Will not let in refugees from countries with significant ISIS presence” – Cruz = Screw ISIS’s main victims, who gives a crap about them.
  • 03:31:21 Unfortunately, anybody on this stage who says anything positive about immigration is shooting themselves in the foot with today’s GOP.
  • 03:32:24 Retweeted @dandrezner 03:32:16 Literally nothing Trump is saying about China right now is accurate.
  • 03:38:15 Retweeted @DanielLarison 03:38:07 Trump: Are you looking at me? Are *you* looking at me?
  • 03:39:31 Drat, looked away for a minute, what prompted the booing?
  • 03:41:26 Retweeted @MichaelSkolnik 03:41:14 I feel bad to @JebBush — when Donald attacks him, he just freezes. Can’t the guy hire a sparring partner and practice for that moment?
  • 03:41:37 Retweeted @hominidviews 03:41:24 Donald Trump
  • 03:41:53 .@hominidviews I got that part, I gather it was saying Jeb was weak or something? in reply to hominidviews
  • 03:46:20 Wait, did they just ask Christie about bridges?
  • 03:50:13 Why is Carson still here? He is so done. Of course so are half the people on the stage.
  • 03:51:40 Is this over yet?
  • 03:52:56 Starting to think about the effect of this debate. Don’t think any moments here will really break out and make a difference.
  • 03:55:07 Retweeted @lizzieohreally 03:54:10 Omg stop saying VAT tax. The T stands for tax!
  • 03:55:14 Retweeted @fmanjoo 03:54:34 @lizzieohreally The B in JEB stands for Bush! in reply to lizzieohreally
  • 03:56:17 Retweeted @danpfeiffer 03:56:10 Christie just treated Rubio like Trump treats Jeb
  • 03:57:31 “Coming up after this”. I guess it isn’t about to end. They really need to keep these damn things to two hours. Of course… still watching.
  • 04:00:44 Retweeted @chucktodd 04:00:30 Christie and Bush made good efforts to break up troika but it felt like the debate kept coming back to some combo of Trump Cruz and Rubio
  • 04:04:11 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 04:03:55 Trump may hit 242% after this debate. Why? IDK, but it feels right.
  • 04:04:34 What were the protesters saying?
  • 04:05:21 Oh, the protest was about Rand Paul not being here. OK.
  • 04:09:26 Retweeted @studentactivism 04:09:15 Some weirdos interrupted the GOP debate to shout incoherently for a while. And then there was a protest.
  • 04:09:40 Retweeted @petersuderman 04:09:25 This debate was over 10 minutes ago. We have now crossed the debate event horizon. No one knows what lies beyond.
  • 04:10:48 Trying to one up each other on how anti-immigration they are. Sigh.
  • 04:11:22 Snowden! Who had that in their drinking games?
  • 04:12:31 Big Rubio attack on Cruz. Boom. Cruz rebutting now. This is fun! Some real sparks between several of them this debate!
  • 04:14:01 I think Rubio won that exchange. On balance, tonight was not great for Cruz I think. Which is good for Trump.
  • 04:14:37 Bush complaining about not getting questions again. These guys really need to realize that just makes it obvious they are losing.
  • 04:14:46 Retweeted @hominidviews 04:14:10 Don't mind me…I'm practicing to be a Trumphole.
  • 04:15:19 .@hominidviews I’ve been trying to make “Trumpets” work as the term for Trump supporters. Hasn’t caught on yet. :-) in reply to hominidviews
  • 04:16:19 Closing statements next!
  • 04:21:42 Neither Kasich or Bush are even slightly in tune with today’s GOP primary voters.
  • 04:23:30 Retweeted @byjoelanderson 04:23:20 Ben Carson just out here selling mixtapes now. He doesn't want to be president.
  • 04:25:04 Benghazi!
  • 04:25:48 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 04:25:34 @abulsme "PAY ATTENTION TO MEEEEEE!!!! :( :( :( :(" <— das Bush rn in reply to abulsme
  • 04:29:10 OK, over. Thoughts on poll changes from this… Maybe Cruz & Rubio get slight boost, but not enuf. Trump maintains lead, so overall Trump win.
  • 04:29:54 Retweeted @NickKristof 04:29:39 The debate also underscores the basic problem of GOP presidential politics: How to win primaries without scaring general election voters?
  • 04:30:47 Retweeted @AriFleischer 04:30:30 Trump was Trump and that means he had a good night. I give him a 60% shot of being the GOP nominee.
  • 04:30:56 Retweeted @AlecMacGillis 04:29:09 Trump and Cruz, full steam ahead.
  • 04:31:01 Retweeted @HeerJeet 04:30:48 Bingo. The GOP is about to nominate either Trump or Cruz. Amazing.
  • 04:32:33 Cruz being close in Iowa, and having a shot at winning it is biggest threat to Trump still. But Trump still has advantage here.
  • 04:37:06 Rubio did OK though. Gives hope to the “three candidates in it for a long time, nobody over 50%, convention fight” scenario. Please? Please?
  • 04:39:56 Retweeted @DavMicRot 04:19:43 After debate: Cruz slightly up, Trump slightly down. Rubio & Trump tied for lead @ 33% Cruz 22% Bush 10% Christie 3%
  • 05:39:46 Reading – Thursday’s Debate Was a Nightmare for the GOP Establishment (Brian Beutler)
  • 05:48:26 Iran Says It Has Removed Core Of Reactor, Key To Nuclear Deal (Nasser Karimi)
  • 17:29:48 Reading – U.S. Radically Changes Its Story of the Boats in Iranian Waters (@ggreenwald)
  • 18:21:07 Just saw a Ben Carson bumper sticker in the wild.
  • 20:05:15 Retweeted @Noahpinion 19:59:43 Remember: If you have tweets numbered "1 of 2" and "2 of 2", the second tweet should be a REPLY to the first (with username omitted)!
  • 20:29:12 Retweeted @TheFix 19:25:45 The single most stunning poll number on Donald Trump I have seen