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Electoral College: Trump bottoms out?

States with new poll data added since the last update: Everywhere except Alaska, DC, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wyoming, and the Nebraska congressional districts.

Notable changes in: Indiana and the tipping point

National Summary

We now have plenty of polls that are after the Access Hollywood tape and after the 2nd debate, and even a few from after the various sexual assault allegations leveled against Donald Trump. The averages go back further, often covering 2-3 weeks, even for the close states. But we are getting to the point where we should be seeing impact from those events.

After the first debate, we did see a big drop. It continued through to release of the tape and the second debate. We are still getting polls covering the period immediately after that, so things may yet change… but so far there has not been a further drop since those events.

In fact, we have seen an improvement for Trump since the last update:

  • The tipping point moved from Clinton by 6.5% in PA to Clinton by 5.4% in VA.
  • Clinton’s best case declined from a 226 EV win to only a 204 EV win.

The expected case and Trump’s best case remained the same.

Here are the charts:

chart-4

chart-5

Both charts show a bit of improvement for Trump based on the last few days of polls.

Now, it might be wise to be cautious here. We are still going to get more polls covering this period. So these lines will move about some more. But it is also very possible that Trump hit his floor, and we’re now bouncing back a bit from that.

The public is very polarized. There is a percentage of Americans who will vote Democrat no matter what, and another percentage who will vote Republican no matter what. We may have seen both extremes of the how far things can change by those in the middle sloshing back and forth. If so, the extremes of this race go from a nearly tied race at Trump’s ceiling, to about a 188 electoral vote win for Clinton at her ceiling. Those are “expected case” numbers. In terms of the tipping point that translates into a Clinton lead of between approximately 0.5% and 6%.

Given recent news cycles and where things stand now, it currently seems as if a break through Trump’s floor is more likely than through his ceiling. As has been pointed out, a comeback from this far behind with this little time left would be unprecedented. But while it is possible that events may cause us to break out of that range, it seems very likely that when the votes come in on November 8th, we’ll find ourselves somewhere between those bounds.

But we shall see soon enough… 22.1 days left to go!

State Details

Moving out of Clinton’s reach

chart-6

The general trend in Indiana has been a steadily weakening lead for Trump. But with the latest polls, the average pops up to a 5.9% Trump lead, so for now, Indiana is no longer in the “could go either way” category.

State that changed the tipping point

chart-7

A note about McMullin

In the last week or two McMullin has spiked in Utah. Some individual polls show him within striking range of winning Utah. All of the current Election Graphs metrics and charts operate under the assumption that no third party has a realistic shot at winning electoral votes. I have had the outline of a contingency plan on how to modify the site to accommodate 3rd parties that might win electoral votes, but activating it would take quite a lot of work. If a 3rd candidate had gotten to that position a month or two ago, the site would definitely have been revamped to adjust for that possibility. As it is, there simply may not be time to do that before election day.

Right now the Real Clear Politics average in Utah, which includes McMullin, stands at Trump 31.8%, Clinton 25.5%, McMullin 22.8%, Johnson 8.8%, Stein 1.0%. (The Election Graphs Utah average currently stands at Trump 39.0%, Clinton 26.8%, but doesn’t yet include at least one poll that came out as this update was being finalized.) If and when the RCP average shows McMullin within 5% of the lead in the state, I will at the very least put notes at appropriate places on the site noting he has the possibility of winning 6 electoral votes. I will consider more substantial changes only if time allows.

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

Edit 22:51 UTC to add McMullin note.

13 comments to Electoral College: Trump bottoms out?

  • Richard Booker

    This is insane..

    I vaguely remember things like the Reagan landslide in 84 and Bill Clinton taking an odd mix of states in 92 and 96…

    I never thought I’d see a map like this one could finish up being..

    Democrats are making inroads in some states that, if they do flip, would be unbelievable….

    Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and Indiana all seem to be off and on targets that always get mentioned as maybes..

    Not only may some of those flip, but now some wild targets are within reach… Texas, Alaska, South Carolina, Kansas, South Dakota and Montana might all be dragged down to close (i.e. Within 5%) races..!
    Then there’s Utah… which could be the first state since, what, 1968 to give electoral votes to an independent (feel free to correct me if I’m wrong there)..

    I tell you my awe has been struck, my dumb is founded and my gast is well and truly flabbered!

  • Don’t get too excited too quickly! At the moment the actual electoral college count in my estimate is Is 339 to 199. That is pretty close to 2012’s 332 to 206. The only states that differ at the moment are Arizona (Red to Blue), Ohio (Blue to Red), North Carolina (Red to Blue), and Maine’s 2nd (Blue to Red). There are some others that are starting to look closer than one might have expected at one point, but they aren’t flipping yet. They might. We just aren’t there yet. :-)

    Now, McMullin in Utah. OK, I’m obviously sitting here looking surprised and dumbfounded on that one too, since the site clearly isn’t prepared for that option. :-)

  • And Cathy, no need for panic. This race has been fairly consistent for months and months and months. Just that one spike for Trump in December, but even then he couldn’t manage to take a lead.

  • Richard Booker

    I hear mention of McMullin making a play in Idaho as well?

    I know a poll that shows a tie means the actual results are anything up to a 6 or 7 margin for either candidate, so I know they aren’t flipping, and that it’s still unlikely in most cases…

    It’s more that there are so many states, normally reliable by maybe 10% (give or take a couple of points) that are moving towards the ‘too close to call’ or ‘statistical tie’ or ‘toss up’ or ‘within the margin of error’ or whatever particular description you prefer!

    There is something of a fault in US politics, when elections are only actually decided by a half dozen or so swing states. This fact has been mentioned in the last few cycles. Finally you have an election where, perhaps, a third or more of the states end up being competitive (ok, that does depend on definition so I’ll go with the within 5% weak states).

    I think most sites now are showing HRC at around 350 EV, I’m still of the opinion that 400 is plausible and that there maybe a surprise result or two coming from AK, GA, TX and so on. At the end of the day, and barring further surprises, it will now come down to turnout and enthusiasm.

    Believe me though… there is a (mostly) worldwide sigh of relief that certain nameless reality tv stars are unlikely to get the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue!

  • Ben in Seattle

    Richard Booker said, “Believe me though… there is a (mostly) worldwide sigh of relief that certain nameless reality tv stars are unlikely to get the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue!”

    Nameless? Ooh, ooh, I know this one! You’re talking about Vold… err, I mean, “He-who-must-not-be-named”. Right? (No? Could it be “Hastur” then?)

    Of course, I do believe you, but the phrase “believe me” may have been irreversibly tarnished for me by The Nameless One’s verbal tic of appending it after particularly egregious fabulisms.

    By the way, I like the idea of never naming him again. It’d be good for us, yet is You-Know-Who’s worst nightmare. See today’s article by Michael Barbaro in the New York Times: “What Drives Donald Trump? Fear of Losing Status”. (I’d post a link, but I think doing so makes extra work for abulsme to have to moderate and approve the post.)

  • Richard Booker

    I did see that article already :)

    So.. we either need the Necronimicon or a Horcrux collection to banish the Great horny bea… err.. Great orange beast? (It could be argued I was right first time…).
    It’s an old superstitious belief that names have power… mind you, were he ever to read these comments then how long before the line about using witchcraft to rig the election appears? I could do without a crowd of pitchfork bearing peasants trying to burn me at the stake, it would put a down on my day :)

    On a more serious point..

    I’ve seen a number of ‘conspiracy theories’ as to why he ran in the first place. Is it in any way plausible that he either…

    1 – really did/does believe everything he says..

    2 – just ran for huge, worldwide, free publicity..

    3 – started as a ‘protest’ candidate and got caught up in his own hype..

    4 – realised at some point he just didn’t want the job..

    Or some combination of these and others.

    I do discount the idea he’s run to deliberately throw the election and similar theories. The above ones all do seem a little plausible to me, but I’d be interested in what other people think.

  • Reason #5: Did it because Obama teased him at the White House Correspondents Dinner. :-)

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