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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Weight and Bulk

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about the assassination in Turkey, the truck attack in Berlin, and of course another week of the Trump transition. We also cover artificial Christmas trees, upside down Christmas trees, the right way to wrap presents, the final electoral college vote, federalism, Ivanka flying coach, and more!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-12-23
Length this week – 1:48:43

  • (0:00:33-0:18:37) But First
    • Agenda
    • Sam gets a fake tree
    • Upside down trees
    • Pre-lit trees
    • Sam wrapping
  • (0:19:58-0:46:47) Turkey and Berlin
    • Assassination in Turkey
    • Possibilities for escalation?
    • Russia/Turkey closer together?
    • Syria connection
    • Price of intervention
    • Berlin attack
    • Connections to immigration?
    • Leaving wallets?
    • Granting citizenship
    • How do you defend? Should you?
  • (0:48:47-1:19:38) This Week in Trump
    • Random download
    • Things Obama did
    • Trump lies
    • Everyday Twitter
    • Pardons for illegal orders?
    • Eventual impeachment?
    • Disarray and Chaos
    • Reality vs Perception
    • Private Security
    • Fundraising kids
  • (1:20:19-1:48:23) Lightning Round
    • Timer Master
    • Final Electoral College Vote
    • Direction for the Democrats
    • Federalism
    • Ivanka flying coach
    • Uber self-driving car issues
    • Wrap Up

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: You can do that?

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan’s biggest topic is of course Russia Russia Russia, as we discuss all of this last week’s hubbub about Russian interference with the election, and everybody’s responses to that. But we also take one last look at the Electoral College before they vote, and do a segment on Apple products. Rounding it out, we cover being sick, taking parents or kids to work, the drama over the North Carolina governorship, Ivanka as First Lady, and more…

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-12-17
Length this week – 2:25:37

  • (0:00:10-0:17:15) But First
    • Agenda
    • Everybody sick
    • The unknown friend
    • Bring parents/children to work days
    • Sick kids at school
    • Salt rooms
  • (0:18:00-1:03:59) Russia Russia Russia
    • Didn’t we know this?
    • Intentional misdirection?
    • Was it decisive? Does it matter?
    • Clinton team blaming everything but themselves
    • Obama’s response
    • Tillerson Nomination
    • Hacking vs Disinformation/Propaganda
    • Republican response
    • Retaliation?
    • Snowden Comparison
    • Trump denial/connection?]
  • (1:04:38-1:29:35) Electoral College
    • Hamilton Electors
    • How many will be faithless?
    • Who will they vote for?
    • Record number of faithless electors?
    • House scenarios
    • State binding laws
  • (1:30:44-1:53:57) Apple Stuff
    • New TV app
    • MacBook Pro battery
    • Ivan’s iPad Pro
    • iPhone 6s batteries
    • Apple News
    • AllSides
  • (1:54:37-2:25:17) Lightning Round
    • North Carolina Governor drama
    • Some more Trump appointments
    • Facebook fake news effort
    • Sam and Brandy donations
    • Ivanka as First Lady
    • Trump can’t divest?
    • China goading Trump?
    • Trump Tower visitors
    • Future of Obamacare

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Nice Snuffle

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan return to the normal non-election format. The three main topics are fake news, Trump’s conflicts of interest, and how to respond to Trump. They also talk a bit about MacBook Pros, iPads, Fidel Castro, Standing Rock, Syria, and even more! Join us as things start to settle into the new normal.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-12-01
Length this week – 1:55:48

  • (0:00:10-0:21:20) But First
    • Agenda
    • MacBook Pros and huge iPads
    • Trackpads/mice/trackballs
    • Gestures
  • (0:22:29-0:47:37) Fake News
    • How it gets created and spreads
    • Engagement algorithms
    • Possible solutions?
  • (0:48:25-1:05:40) Trump Conflicts
    •  Trump’s plan to minimize conflict
    • Trump International
    • Who can do anything?
    • Trump supporter regrets?
  • (1:06:59-1:28:42) Responding to Trump
    • How to respond to lies and crazy?
    • Outrage fatigue
    • Taking Trump’s phone?
    • Presidential alerts
    • Congressional strategy
  • (1:29:20-1:55:28) Lightning Round
    • Congressional earmarks
    • Fidel Castro died
    • Standing Rock
    • Columbia plane crash
    • Electoral College update
    • Daylight Saving Time
    • Syria

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Closing Every Door

This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan start out trying to talk about things other than Trump. Thanksgiving, Puerto Rico, Apple, some books and movies… and that is well and good. But of course then they do talk about the latest week full of Trump developments as the transition continues. Then they wrap up with Jill Stein’s recount campaign, the electoral college, and other ways of messing with election results that either won’t happen or won’t change anything.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
 View Podcast in iTunes
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Download MP3 File
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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-11-25
Length this week – 2:15:49

  • (0:00:41-0:43:47) Not Trump
    • Duck
    • Sam’s Thanksgiving
    • Ivan’s Thanksgiving
    • Puerto Rico
    • Apple Stuff
    • Book: Autobiography of Mark Twain Volume 2
    • Book: The Hobbit
    • Movie: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • (0:45:47-1:31:23) Trump!
    • Water Bottle
    • Policy reversals
    • Staffing picks
    • Conflicts of Interest
    • 25th amendment
    • Maintaining outrage
    • neo-Nazis
    • Trump as Berlusconi
    • Deals and getting things done
    • Trump and SCOTUS
    • Delegation
  • (1:31:52-2:15:35) Recounts and other craziness
    • New York Magazine Article
    • Jill Stein!
    • Why recount won’t change anything
    • Why are people donating?
    • Clinton’s position
    • Luke’s GoFundMe
    • Working the Electoral College again?
    • Congress rejecting electors
    • Get rid of electoral college?
    • Voting your own interests?

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Potentially Realistic

Curmudgeon’s Corner is still digesting the ramifications of Trump’s win in the presidential race. Ivan talks about incidents of harassment among people he knows personally. Then Sam and Ivan talk about how families and friends have been divided by the election, how a Trump administration may work out for the white working class, how the transition is going, Electoral College shenanigans, and much more. Almost all Trump related though. Someday other topics will bubble to the surface again. But not yet.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
 View Podcast in iTunes
 View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
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patreon-30x30 Support us on Patreon

Show Details:

Recorded 2016-11-17
Length this week – 1:50:25

  • (0:04:10-0:40:45) Election Reactions
    • Still the election
    • No closure
    • Harassing incidents
    • Assholes exposed
    • Divisions with family and friends
    • The changing DJT
    • DJT for the white working class
    • American sexism
    • Change everything?
  • (0:42:01-1:12:09) The Transition
    • Obama’s help?
    • Bannon
    • Slow start
    • Senate blocks?
    • Trump restructure
    • Pence influence
  • (1:14:08-1:50:05) More Trump
    • Electoral college shenanigans
    • Market reactions to Trump
    • Not moving to Washington?
    • Trump conflicts of interest
    • Paying for journalism
    • Feedback

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Popular Vote Margin vs Electoral College Margin

After my post about landslides, Reader Ben asked in the comments about the relationship between the popular vote and electoral vote margins. Since I had all the data handy, here is a chart of that relationship…

Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 15.31.26544

Each blue point represents one election between 1824 and 2012 with the popular vote margin on the Y axis and the electoral vote margin on the X axis. Interesting to note are the election where the person with the most electoral votes did not win (1824) and the four elections where the popular vote winner did not win (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000).

In general, you can see that there is a correlation between these two ways of measuring the election, but it is actually fairly loose. There is a lot of variance depending on the geographic distribution of support.

More relevant for this year though, the red data point represents the current polls for the 2016 election (as of August 16th), with the popular vote margin represented by the pollster.com average of an 8.3% Clinton lead and the current Election Graphs “expected case” of a 188 electoral vote win (188/538=34.9%) for Clinton.

As I discussed in my previous post, you can see that this election is in the middle of the pack, not an extraordinary “landslide” type win. At least not at the moment. We do still have several months left and things will of course change.

Electoral College: Three moves toward Clinton

Today there were tons of new polls added to my tracking site. The new polling once again put Clinton vs Paul as the “best polled” candidate pair combination, once again swapping places with Clinton vs Bush to be the default displayed on election2016.abulsme.com. But in the end there were only three status changes on the five candidate pairs with the best polling. Today all three of these changes favor Clinton.

Clinton vs Bush

A new Gravis poll in Iowa increases Clinton’s lead once again to over 5%:

chart (20)

This in turn lowers Bush’s best case from losing to Clinton by 38 electoral votes, to losing by 50 electoral votes:

chart (21)

Iowa has been bouncing back and forth over the line between Weak Clinton and Strong Clinton though, so don’t be surprised for this to change again as new polling comes out.

Clinton vs Christie

A new PPP poll in New Hampshire shows Christie trailing Clinton by 15%. Before this poll, the worst Christie had done in New Hampshire against Clinton was being behind by 5%. So this certainly looks like a potential outlier:

chart (22)

On the flip side, the last polling for Clinton vs Christie in New Hampshire was way back in July, and Christie has been slipping in almost every poll he appears in. So this may also be indicative of a real movement. As usual, the only way to confirm will be with additional polls.

For the moment, with the poll average showing a 5.6% Clinton lead, I remove New Hampshire from the “possible” list for Christie, which moves his best case from losing to Clinton by 100 electoral votes, to losing by 108 electoral votes:

chart (23)

The last time Christie saw any state change categories in his direction vs Clinton was more than a year ago in February 2014. Christie’s general election prospects seem dimmer and dimmer as time goes on. Of course, although I won’t track the nomination races until there are actual delegates to count, if you look at polling for the Republican nomination, you’ll note that the trends look the same there, so Christie may not have to worry that much about his general election prospects.

Clinton vs Huckabee

The same PPP poll in New Hampshire mentioned above is only the second Clinton vs Huckabee poll conducted in New Hampshire, but it is enough to move the average to a greater than 5% Clinton lead:

chart (24)

And this moves Huckabee’s best case against Clinton from losing by 76 electoral votes, to losing by 86 electoral votes:

chart (25)

Comparison

Looking at the “best case” of each of the five “best polled” challengers to Clinton over time:

chart (26)

Since the 2014 elections, Paul is flat. Bush, Christie, Huckabee and Walker are all down. Which means that so far, NONE of these candidates have actually been expanding the list of states that are actually in contention. Now, some other metrics have shown some movement toward some of these candidates, but this is a critical one.  The Republicans can’t win without first making more currently blue states close.

Clinton vs Ryan, Clinton vs Rubio, and Clinton vs Cruz are the #6, #7 and #8 best polled candidate combinations. They are way behind the five above in polling quality by my metric, but feel free to take a look if any of those candidates are of interest… just interpret the results with caution.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: The End is Nigh!

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam, Ivan and Michael talk about:

  • The Case for Romney
  • Electoral College Update / Believing Polls
  • Why polls could be wrong
  • More on Polling / Popular Vote Split
  • Daylight Saving Time / Sandy Fallout
  • iPad Mini vs iPad 4

Recorded on 4 Nov 2012

Length this week – 1:20:30

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Gladiatorial Combat

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam, Ivan and Bruce talk about:

  • Mortgage Refinancing / Election Update / EV-PV Split?
  • More on Polls / Hurricane Sandy
  • Sandy Election Effects / Ballots / Worst Case Scenarios
  • Surface / BYODevice / Windows 8 / iPad Mini

Recorded on 28 Oct 2012

Length this week – 1:28:25

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 View Podcast in iTunes  View Raw XML Feed

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Rooting vs Voting

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam, Ivan and Bruce talk about:

  • Polling Update / Second Debate
  • Who is Gary Johnson?
  • Third Party Strategy / Electoral College / Weighing Issues

Recorded on 21 Oct 2012

Length this week – 1:02:24

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes Download MP3 File
 View Podcast in iTunes  View Raw XML Feed